Archived site. This is an independent restoration of material
previously published on independentstockanalysis.com. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or
operated by any organisation named on these pages, and the content is historical —
it is not current information. About this archive
More evidence the economic recovery is real by Tim Duy . Temp Staffing and Employment and Housing at Value Plays . Tax receipts are strong ( Dr. Ed ). The $85 billion a month in printing looks to continue indefinitely at Marketwatch . S&P…
Seems most of the peak oil crowd is unable to recognize how the energy landscape has changed ; they still say the world will be short of energy and hydrocarbons soon. The cornucopian’s forget the planet is finite. Meanwhile, world oil…
The amazing shift in US fuel consumption trajectory since 2004 is a function of the oil price and has effected both supply and demand: Fuel economy is large piece of the story ( Wards Auto ) A whole lotta information in the Energy Outlook…
The Petroleum Economist is a 1295 Euro a year product. Math whizzes might note that to be about $1700 U.S. dollars. A free trial is available through January 31. It’s not for everyone, but some ISA members would enjoy a day to poke around…
Pop quiz: What world economic growth rate is expected for 2013? The answer is at the bottom of the post. NRP is diversifying into soda ash operations. The insider financing doesn’t thrill me but otherwise I like the business and units…
Oil and gas are major subjects at ISA . Energy is the world’s largest industry and perhaps many members are interested in more color. Here are some resources: News Fuel Fix Wall Street Journal’s energy and oil and gas page. John Kemp commentary at Reuters. Platts The Barrel Bloomberg on energy…
According to Macquarie Private Wealth The resource boom ended in 2011 already . The cliff notes are at Mining and the whole piece is at MPW. Think China… End of An Era: 30 Years of Double-Digit Chinese Growth at Saturna Capital . Yes, the…
October US natural gas production was an all-time high: EIA . Exporting the American Renaissance: Global Impacts of LNG Exports from the United States by Deloitte . “Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, reduced its crude…
Understanding the Oil Cycle at Investing Daily . “RBC Capital Markets’ commodities expert, George Gero, sees WTI trading in a $20-band around the mid-$80s in 2013…” Saudi Gazette “U.S. daily oil production, which averaged 6.4 million…
“On the other hand, assume that the investor strives to avoid paying a high premium for future prospects by choosing companies about which he is personally optimistic, although they are not favorites of the stock market. No doubt this is the type of judgment that, if sound, will prove most remunerative. But, by the…
The energy piece of the economic puzzle has morphed over the last several years. From a macro economic perspective, energy does not appear to be a headwind. Energy is providing a sustainable economic competitive advantage in the U.S…
Oil Market Going Through ‘Violent’ Structural Change: IEA at CNBC : “…the shift of oil demand from the West to the East is now rapidly accelerating” and “refining margins have become more volatile.” Iraq, Saudi on OPEC collision course…
S&P 500 Energy & Materials relative to each other by Ed Yardeni . The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production by Frank Holmes . Three charts of America’s bright energy future by Mark Perry . The Insourcing Boom ( The Atlantic ) helps…
Oil as an Exhaustible Resource by James Hamilton , which dovetails with the ISA idea worldwide oil production is on an undulating plateau, the shape of which will be determined by price. 9 Charts That Show Why People Have Begun To Whisper…
“The US is growing its oil output more than the entire increase in demand for the rest of the world,” said Pavel Molchanov, a senior energy analyst at Raymond James .
I trust members used the weekend to get caught up on the heavy reading presented at Independent Stock Analysis . In honor of cyber Monday, consider subscribing for $100 a year. Now we’re back at it as we continue to examine our thesis…
The possibility of a Santa Claus rally: Cam Hui . “There are a number of possible Utica deals on the horizon, with some values potentially rivaling the approximate $15,000 per acre that Chesapeake previously announced.” Wow! UG Center…
Oil Trades Near Four-Month Low on Demand Concern at Bloomberg . Obama’s Next Steps on Energy and Climate ( NYT ). That’s one side. A piercing look at the US Bureau of Land Management from the unreliable Casey Research . “President Obama has gained a second term in which a shale gas and oil boom…
EOG Resources reported stellar oil production results and growth again in the third quarter. EOG is an outstanding company; unfortunately shares are priced richly. Chief Mark Papa always provides clear macro commentary and was the first to…
Crude Futures Drop on Greek Austerity Vote, Rising U.S. Supply at Bloomberg . Energy chart of the day: US oil output during last week of October was highest weekly production since January 1995 from Mark Perry . U.S. net petroleum imports…
Oil Trades Near Four-Month Low on Greece Concern, U.S. Elections at Bloomberg . Surging Oil Production In US And Iraq Weigh On Long-Term Oil Prices, Demand Is Key In Near Term at HAI . Last decade a leg of the fundamental negative outlook…
Thursday magnified the importance of stock selection in the E&P sector. SM rose 11% and BRY fell 12% on results. Execution is the prime reason PXP is able to make its huge foray into the Gulf of Mexico while FST attempt to turn around and…
Oil Trades Near 3-Day High as Refineries Resume at Bloomberg . Sandy likely will lead to lower gasoline prices at Fuel Fix . Analysis: Does U.S. shale mean cheap global oil by 2020? at Reuters . ISA continues to think remarkably steady oil…
Oil Trims Biggest Monthly Decline Since May After Storm at Bloomberg . Will The Crude Production Boom Keep Running? RBN Energy Regarding Sandy, “Bakken fell $6.50 to a $10-a-barrel-discount against WTI at 3:12 p.m. New York time, its…
Pop quiz: When does $3.47 minus 3 cents equal $3.77? Answer: When futures contracts rolls over. The November NG contract expired and December is now the front month. Most E&P’s have very modest hedges in place through 2012 while being…
Oil Slides, Gasoline Gains as Hurricane Sandy Nears U.S. at Bloomberg . Energy chart of the day: Shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas has boosted US oil production to a 17-year high by Mark Perry . Off topic: North Dakota’s oil…
Oil Set for Second Weekly Drop on Demand Outlook, Supply at Bloomberg . Short Opportunities in The Oil Market at Invested Central . The fourth quarter is peak seasonal demand for oil, yet “Forecasters say that in the fourth quarter, global oil output will top demand by more than 630,000 barrels a…
Will the market weakness remain contained or is it the start of something deeper? Chess One wildly bullish cycles commentator is calling for a bottom: Toby Connor . Meanwhile, futures are strong this morning as Oil Rebounds After Five-Day…
Independent Stock Analysis has long suggested world oil production oil appears to be on an undulating plateau , the shape of which will be determined by price. And the oil price may be remarkably steady for the years ahead. OPEC and the…
Oil Falls for Fourth Day in New York; Brent Fluctuates at Bloomberg . Yesterday was Natural Gas’ Biggest Single-Day Slump Since August at Barron’s . Dennis Gartman Makes the Bear Case for Crude on CNBC . “U.S. fossil fuel production will…
Oil Advances; Keystone Pipeline Set to Start at Bloomberg . Goldman sounds like the ISA ‘stable undulating plateau oil price regime’ ( Reuters ): “Over the past three years long-dated Brent crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing…
Kurt Cobb has a decent series on world oil supply: Why the oil industry doesn’t want you to remember the last 14 years Has OPEC misled us about the size of its oil reserves? Does it matter? Tar sands, oil shale, and heavy oil: Why the…
Yesterday, Gas Slides on Forecasts for Above-Normal Temperatures at Bloomberg . Perhaps a slow start to winter provides an entry point for the gassers… The service company’s loss is the E&P’s gain: “Pricing for shale work is expected to…
Morgan Stanley’s bullish natural gas note last week may well be significantly understated with the assumptions used in my opinion. The full report: Morgan Stanley . Natural gas and coal: Energy Energized by Ryan Puplava . Economists are a…
Daily Energy Price Outlook at Curve Ahead . The super-majors can’t really increase production, they just increase production on a per share basis with continual share buybacks. Chevron warned. Costs balloon on Norway projects ( Upstream…
Oil Declines From High as Crude Stocks Seen Rising at Bloomberg . Continental’s five year plan announced yesterday was in conjunction with the company’s Investor Day . A summery at Million Dollar Way . Report: Shale gas boom could echo…
Oil Declines a Second Day as Europe Ministers Meet Amid Slowdown at Bloomberg . Short of gasoline, California moves to winter blend several weeks early. Bloomberg U.S. shale oil plays are booming to the point of still being underestimated…
Oil Heads for Third Weekly Drop Before U.S. Jobs Data at Bloomberg . U.S. crude oil output reaches a 15-year high in September; Dept. of Energy predicts significant increases to continue ( Mark Perry ). “The rapidly growing crude-oil flow…
For months ISA has noted sanctions curtailing Iranian oil exports. Fear mongers hypothesize Iranian unrest ( Sprach ) will lead to a spike in oil pricing. Wrong. Regime change in Iran could mean built up inventory and shut in production…
Oil Falls to Four-Day Low as U.S. Supply Increases, China Slows at Bloomberg . More on natural gas production flattening: Fuel Fix . I have not found the research report, but “FBR also hiked its 2013 price forecast for natural gas to $4.50 per million British thermal units, up from $3.50…
Oil Trades Near One-Week High as U.S. Manufacturing Expands at Bloomberg . America’s booming energy industry has emerged as the no. 1 job-creating sector of the U.S. economy by Mark Perry . The horizontal drilling boom being bullish for…
Stock futures are higher this morning, while Oil Declines From One-Week High as China Manufacturing Weakens at Bloomberg . The oil price hinges on economic growth: Saudi Gazette . Maugheri vs The Oil Drum: Cornucopians vs The Peak Oil…
Oil Poised for Strongest Quarter This Year on Economic Optimism at Bloomberg . Oil climbs on China stimulus speculation and Spain budget talks at Financial Post . Iraqi crude oil production approaching highest level in decades at the EIA . Energy fact of the week: Surging U.S. oil production in…
Oil Falls to 7-Week Low on Demand Outlook, Stockpile Gain at Bloomberg . Jeff Rubin on oil and economic growth: Bloomberg . Also, Musings: Energy, Unemployment And The Health of The US Economy at Rigzone . “Presently the estimated breakeven price for the “average” well in the Bakken formation in…
Oil Rises in New York on Speculation Last Week’s Drop Overdone at Bloomberg . Oil spare productive capacity trumps: “…analysts are increasingly skeptical about whether these countries have the capacity to shield Western consumers against a…
Futures are down this morning: Bloomberg . “The world faces “major questions” over adequacy of oil supplies…North Sea Brent crude production has halved over the past decade…on track to drop to half of that level by 2020″ at CME Group . A…
Oil Trims Biggest Drop Since June as Losses Considered Excessive at Bloomberg . Simmons & Co.: Significant Oil Output Surge Is Sustainable at UG Center . Oh how the world changes. Six years ago Matt Simmons was warning of the impending…
Oil Falls to Six-Week Low on China Slowdown, Supply Surge at Bloomberg . Oil Looks Ready To Collapse on the chart by Armo Trader . Oil Looks Ready to Part Ways With Stock Market at WSJ . Iran’s oil minister says crude exports rebounding at…
Last month in Rails Crossing (subs only) ISA looked at the rails with respect to our ongoing coal investigation. Turns out the rails may be solid and conservative investments as derivatives of the U.S. shale oil boom. The strength of the…
Investors seem to be obsessing over yesterday’s large sudden fall in oil prices. Perhaps the event was random; perhaps the event means SPR oil is coming to market. More important is the rebalancing of global oil flows. Oil Extends Decline…
Oil Trades Near Four-Month High on Signs of Improving Economy at Bloomberg . Gas rigs down 4, oil rigs up 4, rig count unchanged at Haynesville Play . “Oil production from the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale formation topped 600,000 barrels a day for the first time in July, up 69 percent…
Yesterday’s unofficial announcement money printing has become permanent boosted asset prices. Western world stimulus affects the precious metals complex most. The second beneficiary is oil. Materials are driven by Chinese and emerging…
Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Mideast Protests, Fed Meeting at Bloomberg . North Dakata Bakken boom continues: Mark Perry . Pad drilling and rig mobility lead to more efficient drilling at the EIA . EOG Says U.S. Fracking Rule to Cost…
Oil Gains After German Court Allows For ESM Ratification at Bloomberg . Brent-WTI Oil Gap Sliding as North Sea Output Rebounds at Bloomberg . Shale oil can’t stop crude topping $150 by 2020-Bernstein at Reuters . “…while U.S. shale oil and…
Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus at Bloomberg . Iran says oil prices are too low at Oil Voice . Naimi Says Supply and Demand Don’t Justify Rising Oil Prices at Business Week . Still Beared Up on the Oil…
Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus at Bloomberg . Oil Supplies Appear Tighter in Crisis Mirror at WSJ . The Repricing of Oil by Gregor . My view of some nuances differ, yet he’s as good an oil analyst as any…
Yesterday, Oil rises, then gives up most of its price gains at Fuel Fix . Today, Crude Trades Near One-Week High as Slower Hiring Curbs Optimism at Bloomberg . “…diminishing influence of SPR-release talk.” FT Alphaville “In our quantitatively eased world, the new “dot-com” is “yield”. Investors in…
Today’s stock rally includes strong precious metals with base metals being flat. Jim O’Neal coined the term BRIC and now says “The big commodity play on China is finished.” ( Bloomberg video ). The BRIC nations stock markets are minor…
Oil Rises a Second Day on U.S. Supply Drop, ECB Plan Optimism at Bloomberg . On Tuesday EOG Resources CEO Mark Papa gave a presentaion . Starting at the 10 minute market he gives an overview of world oil markets (starts with page 8 ). In…
Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Manufacturing Contracts at Bloomberg . 2012 US Oil Production Will Be Highest In 14 Years & US Oil Boom Gets Bigger ( John Hanger via EIA). Saudi Arabia may become oil importer by 2030: Citigroup at…
Oil Rises to Highest in One Week on Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Did you know Gasoline Costs In 2011 Hit Record Average of $2,850 ? ( John Hanger ). No wonder Lessons from the 2011 oil release are discussed ( Financial Post ). U.S…
Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain Before Fed Chairman’s Speech at Bloomberg . “Global crude oil supplies have tightened as top petroleum countries such as Iran produce less” per the EIA. Short and long versions. “Growing global demand for…
Rail Traffic Nears 4 Year High at Value Plays . First, this is a function of the U.S. private sector economy being decent ( Mark Perry ). “If you are looking for better-than-expected global economic indicators, welcome home; they are…
Oil Declines for a Second Day as Stockpiles Rise, Storm Weakens at Bloomberg . Hurricane Isaac and shut in production: EIA . Why Gasoline Prices Are Volatile : “Boutique fuel requirements have balkanized the gasoline market, magnifying the…
Busy day in the oil markets: Inventory, G7 and IEA head statements and oh yea, hurricane Isaac. Oil Declines From One-Week High on Isaac Landfall, G-7 Statement at Bloomberg . “The oil and natural gas markets have become less vulnerable to hurricanes as a boom in onshore shale production redraws…
Oil Rises on U.S. Supply Forecast, Venezuela Blaze at Bloomberg . Isaac Set to Reach Hurricane Strength on Way to Louisiana ( Bloomberg ). More than three-fourths of Gulf oil production shut down at Fuel Fix . Isaac’s latest path at…
Oil production and inventory levels are flush. New production demands high prices while emerging market demand growth has met declining OECD demand. The shale revolution continues as mother nature and refinery fires have energy prices…
Oil Declines for Second Day, Pares Loss as Storm Approaches Gulf at Bloomberg . Crude and product inventory charts courtesy of BMO and Investor Village . Saudi Arabia is pumping at record levels but risks to crude supply disruptions remain…
Oil Gains on U.S. Stockpile Drop, Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Yet, “Sanctions against Iranian oil are taking hold just as the world is finding itself oversupplied” in Does the World Need Iran’s Oil? Apparently Not at Business Week…
Tuesday Was Ugly: Short-term Caution Advised at All Star Charts . Oil Trades Near Three-Month High in New York Amid Supply Risks at Bloomberg . Crude oil prices peaked early in 2012 at the EIA . The five year chart is surprising and interesting… Goldman Sees Brent-WTI Spread Narrowing as…
Oil Advances to 3-Month High Before Europe Debt Meetings at Bloomberg . Demand destruction stunner: “Oil consumption in July 2012 was 18.062 barrels per day–matching July 1995 levels.” John Hanger With 2011 Permian oil production of…
Oil Rises as European Leaders Prep for Debt Talks at Bloomberg . The last headline I expected to see upon returning from holiday : U.S., U.K. to Call for Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release? Iacono Research . Dennis Gartman: Tapping SPR…
Oil Declines in New York Amid Signs of Higher U.S. Supply at Bloomberg . June oil production in North Dakota was higher by 20k b/d over May and 71% higher year over year (June 2011 was weather depressed) ( Mark Perry ). When the revised…
Oil Rises for First Time in 3 Days on Likely Supply Drop at Bloomberg . Does the World Need Iran’s Oil? Apparently Not at Business Week . Meanwhile, US demand continues to be tepid at the EIA . One indication oil supply is hard pressed to…
Oil Gains Amid Concern Mideast Tensions May Curb Supply at Bloomberg . Seems everyone is calling for volatile oil prices. Do not be so sure. Protecting oil prices from going meaningfully lower are OPEC, the high cost of new supply and…
Oil Pares Weekly Gain as China, IEA Signal Slower Growth at Bloomberg . This is the chief reason oil is lower this morning: IEA sees oil demand growth slowing further in 2013 at Reuters . OPEC sees downside risk to 2013 oil demand outlook…
Oil Near Three-Month High Amid Speculation of Chinese Stimulus at Bloomberg . Yet Oil May Retreat on Fastest Stockpiling Rate in 14 Years also at Bloomberg . US shale production booms, yet “North Sea crude oil output is set to fall to a record low in September, adding to supply tightness with the…
Oil Drops From Two-Month High in New York as U.S. Demand Eases at Bloomberg . I do not know the source, but “Active rigs in North Dakota: 198. Down from the boom’s high of 218.” at Million Dollar Way . Despite the US shale boom, why is…
Oil Near Two-Week High on U.S. Supplies; Brent Rises Above $110 at Bloomberg . “But Helms emphasized that oil production in the Bakken is consistently increasing by 15,000 to 20,000 b/d every month, and that thousands of additional wells…
Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in 5 Weeks as Storm Slows at Bloomberg . Mark Papa oil market commentary: “Regarding oil, we still think the global supply-demand balance is tight, and we expect prices to strengthen throughout the remainder of…
Oil Rises From Three-Week Low on Forecasts U.S. Hiring Increased at Bloomberg . The Eagle Ford rig count is 270, a good 50+ higher than the Bakken with more productive geology. Eagle Ford Shale PXP Eagle Ford “second-quarter daily sales…
Oil Rises a Second Day as U.S. Inventories Decline, ECB Meets at Bloomberg . Blackout Highlights India’s Diesel Dependence at the WSJ . “NLG Bloodbath…rippling across the oil and gas industry” at Bloomberg . Devon JV’s some Permian…
Oil Trades Near Two-Week Low on Manufacturing Slowdown at Bloomberg . OPEC oil output drops as sanctions hit Iran at Globe and Mail . “Majority of Executives See Energy Independence Achievable Within 15 Years” and “Many see another oil…
Crude Oil Set for First Monthly Advance in Three at Bloomberg . U.S. oil production for May was higher by 13% year over year ( EIA ). May net petroleum imports were down 11% year over year ( EIA ). These trends are strong and are accelerating a bit. “…KKR has committed to providing drilling carry…
Oil Trades Near Week High on Stimulus Outlook, Mideast Unrest at Bloomberg . U.S. crude oil production (ex-Alaska) reaches a 23-year high in June : AEI . The industrial side of the shale boom: Reuters . “Continental Resources Inc.’s daily…
Yesterday I asserted shale is being underestimated in the press and public, and I received push-back from knowledgeable investors. The world has changed fast. Perhaps the estimates quoted and linked were aggressive. But not by much. “The…
Despite yesterday’s EIA oil report showing an increase in inventory, the price reversed higher. Bloomberg New oil sands development requires a very high oil price: Financial Post . “A new study says North Dakota’s oil production could jump…
Oil Trades Below $90 a Barrel a Third Day on Supply Gain at Bloomberg . US, Europe face distillates shortages heading into winter: BofA Merrill Lynch at Platts . Also, gasoline stocks are at the low of their five year range, though crude…
Oil Advances From One-Week Low on Chinese Manufacturing Outlook at Bloomberg . Oil-Price Surge Is All About Iran from the WSJ . Blackrock: US Shale Boom: A Case of (Temporary) Indigestion at Scribd . Eagle Ford crude pricing: RBN Energy…
Holy crap! Nexon agrees to $15.1B takeover by Cnooc . Marketwatch The Chinese are coming! The American Shale Conundrum Facing China’s Energy Champions at WSJ (google the title to read the whole article). Oil Plunges to Four-Day Low as…
Oil Drops From Nine-Week High on Signs Demand May Weaken at Bloomberg . Oil prices will have a lot to say about how quickly U.S. unconventional production surpasses OPEC’s second and third largest producers: Petroleum Economist . The…
Oil Rises for a Seventh Day on U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles at Bloomberg . The WTI:Bakken differential has collapsed: Bloomberg . Risk to the Brent:WTI spread? Financial Post North America Average Annual Crude Oil Production 1980 – 2012 at…
Yesterday saw a large swath of the oilers gain strength as the day progressed. The larger the trading volume in the name, the stronger the stock. Oil Drops From Seven-Week High on Outlook for Economy at Bloomberg . As China imports have…
Crude Trades Near Seven-Week High on Iran Tensions, Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Fragile, but Comfortable, Oil Market Expected at Oil Price . Chinese crude imports at nine-month low at CGES . What happens to price if and when…
Crude Oil Futures Drop From One-Week High at Bloomberg . The Supply Side of Oil by Elliot Gue . “The course of US production into 2020 will be more dependent than usual on price. An increasing portion of total global production is crowded into the marginal price band of $80-$100 a barrel, and yet…
Oil Trades near One-Week High on Bets China Will Boost Economy at Bloomberg . U.S., Canada to drive 2013 non-OPEC oil supply gains at Fuel Fix . But this is getting carried away: “the US should collaborate with Canada and Mexico to not only fulfill domestic needs but make North America the world’s…
Oil Drops on Demand Concern Amid Signs Economy Slowing at Bloomberg . OPEC sees 2013 oil demand growth slowing at the Globe and Mail . Additionally, “The Saudis are pumping considerably more on an absolute and on a relative basis.” and “Iraq’s crude output is now catching up with Iran’s.” Sober…
Oil is $1.25 higher as I type: Bloomberg . Commentary on oil decline rate assumptions, which points to world oil production being on an undulating plateau: ODAC-Info with a hat tip to Pedriven at Investor Village . Leading peak oil…
Yesterday WTI crude oil was higher by $1.25 on the potential Statoil strike, yet Canadian pipeline crude differentials rose more than $2 at Platts . This morning Crude Drops as Norway Ends Oil Strike, China Cuts Imports ( Bloomberg ). When…
Oil Rebounds as Norway Strike Looms at Bloomberg . Statoil Prepares to Shut Down Production As Strike Continues at the WSJ . “Problem is, the rebound last year was fuelled at least in part by an average deficit of 800,000 barrels a day for…
Crude Oil Declines on Concern Economy Failing to Recover at Bloomberg . “The United States imported about 45% of the petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) that we consumed during 2011. Just over half of these imports came from the…
Bank of England tacks on $78 billion to their printing program ( Marketwatch ). ECB cuts more rates than expected ( Marketwatch ). But China steals the show with a cuts ( Marketwatch ). One more take: FT Alphaville . Looks like the…
Oil Rebounds in New York on Global Stimulus Speculation , Iran at Bloomberg . The especially weak ISM manufacturing data yesterday was bullish, in a perverse way, because of a pavlovian market participant response to central bank easiness…
“…oil futures posted their biggest quarterly declines since the fourth quarter of 2008…while (of Friday) U.S. crude jumped by more than $7…the fourth-largest daily gains in dollar terms since the contracts were launched.” Globe and Mail
All serious investors are avid readers. You, after all, found Independent Stock Analysis while poking around the internet. But don’t forget the books ! A Thousand Barrels A Second by Peter Tertzakian was written in 2006. Daily at ISA we…
Below is the Q1 2012 production, full year 2012 production guidance, market cap as of yesterday’s close, and acreage of five favorite Bakken players: CLR 85.5 boed 91.8 $11.3b 915k+ WLL 80.7 boed 80.9 $4.5b 701k OAS 17.6 boed 18-22k $2.1b…
Brent – WTI curves are not converging any time soon at Sober Look . OPEC warns EU low oil prices threaten future supply security at Platts . “Venezuela is aiming for “an average price of $100 a barrel.”” at Business Week . Geo-politics are…
Simply said, $70 would cause a slew of problems for oil producers. Don’t look now but unless it is being priced of against waterborne oil, we are there. Economics get very skinny and capital budgets outspend cashflow with low oil prices…
Hello Brent contango at FT Alphaville . “…the U.S. will drastically reduce its reliance on important oil, in particular from the Middle East…China’s story is precisely the opposite.” WSJ Details on yesterday’s petroleum inventories: Hard…
Yesterday a report by Leonardo Maugeri created big buzz in the oil and gas community. The Oil and Gas Journal actually used the ridiculous 17 million number in a headline. The executive summery forgets about price . The WSJ and economist…
Oil Trades Little Changed as Storm Threat to U.S. Gulf Crude Supply Fades at Bloomberg . Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Only 252 pages long): EIA This would only be the tip of the iceberg: Oil price fall slowing oilfield activity at Calgary…
We arrive at our desks to weak prices, even with Almost 23% Of Gulf Of Mexico’s Oil-And-Gas Output Cut By Storm : IB Times . Natty will remain depressed withdrawal season begins next fall, while oil needs help from the a ‘Saudi Arabia…
Oil, coal and solar in China at Bloomberg . Oil demand in India: Reuters . North American spot crude oil benchmarks likely diverging due to bottlenecks from the EIA . “Vast fortunes await those willing to quickly claim Canada’s still-unknown troves of tight oil reserves, though it may cost them a…
Energy investors have one final straw to possibly grasp: Brent oil spent the previous fourteen months over $100; the 200 day moving average is $112. Brent now having a $91 handle wouldn’t feel so good. Perhaps the Saudi’s will cut…
Oil Extends Decline as Inventories Reach Most Since 1990 at Bloomberg . Left unmentioned was gasoline and distillate inventories in the lower limit of the average range… E&Y Study: O&G Companies Focus on Drillbit Growth in 2011 from Rigzone . From ND governor urges speedy, safe pipeline building…
About yesterday’s mess in the patch: Barrons . UBS went the other way, with less analysis: Reuters . “Valero could stop importing light, sweet crude to its Gulf Coast refineries as soon as 2013 and fully rely on U.S. production,” Fuel Fix . Rail shipments of oil up 36% this year: Globe and Mail…
Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week: Slashing their oil price estimate. Raymond James OPEC could slow shale development by lowering prices at the Globe and Mail . China’s Filling Strategic Oil Reserve at Huge Cost via 24/7 Wall Street . Excited about solar: Gregor . The solar boom heads to Japan…
The central bankers seem to be in charge. Oil Gains a Second Day on Stimulus Speculation, OPEC Output Call at Bloomberg . Oil and price incentives: Econbrowser . A conservative take on the Bakken: NDDMR . Apache goes big on horizontal…
Oil Trades Near Eight-Month Low Before OPEC Meeting from Bloomberg Oil production change by country in 2011. Economist A summery of the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report: IEA EIA Lowers Oil Price Estimate, Posts Gulf Hurricane Shut-in Estimates at Rig Zone . It’s still too early to say if this is a…
Expect the Bakken boys to report stellar Q2 numbers: “April…was the largest year-over-year increase in the state’s history at 73.5%…) via Mark Perry . Also, The Bakken Buck Starts Here – Bakken Crude Pricing – Part II at RBN Energy . Lower…
OPEC maintained quotas yesterday. “The U.S. shale boom is starting to sap demand from their most important customer. OPEC members are also consuming more of their own product, leaving less to export…The euro zone accounts for a mere 12 per…
Futures are higher this morning, one take: Reformed Broker . Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week pertains to thermal coal: Raymond James . Coal export perspective from the EIA . Oil Gains Most in Five Months on Spain Bailout, China at…
The Bakken Buck Stops Here-Bakken Crude Pricing-Part 1: RBN Energy Enbridge faces Bakken complaints: Globe and Mail Multi decade oil inflation-adjusted at Chart of the Day . Saudi Arabia Achieving $100 Oil Signals Output Reversal at…
Eagle Ford human interest article: Fuel Fix As production ramps higher in a new play, operators get behind before a maintenance level of backlog inventory is found. The Eagle Ford backlog at Eagle Ford Shale . Crude oil and refined product…
Newfield (NFX) CEO Lee Boothby spoke for 40 minutes this morning at the the Citi Global Energy Conference. Q1 2012 oil production was 47% of total production and I estimate using the back of an envelope should be near to mid-fifties by…
Shale of the Century at the Economist . Price matters, as natural gas displaces coal at the EIA . Capital Destruction in Natural Gas by Testosterone Pit . The IEA put out a natural gas report: Global Natural Gas Demand to Rise Sharply at…
Crude glut, price plunge put oil sands projects at risk at The Globe and Mail . Monthly U.S. imports: EIA “Since 2005 the global capacity of installed wind power has quadrupled, due to a variety of factors such as improved technology…
Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week: Is Brazil really on track to double oil production by 2020? Raymond James Pipelines to Profits at Barrons . (Google the title to be able to read the full story.) With bond prices so high, MLP’s are…
Fuel switching from depressed natural gas prices has coal inventories high. EIA Meanwhile, the beaten down coal stocks have held up in today’s shellacking. 24/7 Wall Street In this commodity super-cycle, every time Chinese imports have…
This video discusses the shifting US energy profile and moving the glut of oil from the interior out to the coast. Sounds like Seaway has two large capacity increased coming relatively soon. Global Macro Monitor US net oil imports are…
With the new oil price deck from last decade, the response from demand and supply has been astonishing. The top chart show the anemic US petroleum products consumption. The chart at the bottom show the supply result, and the bottom chart…
“…U.S. liquids production in January and February has already been beating the 2011 average by an additional 660,000 barrels per day. This has helped U.S. import dependence drop from 50.4 percent in January 2010 to just under 40 percent in February 2012.” Wow, great stuff at Oil Dependents .
OPEC spare capacity in the first quarter of 2012 at lowest level since 2008: EIA OPEC’s view of the world: Oil Price . OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report: OPEC Gregor: OPEC has lost the power to lower the price of oil. Chris Martenson The…
Cyclical Bull, Secular Bear presentation by Barry Ritholtz The strength of the housing market: Calculated Risk Crude Oil and Refined Product Storage Charts from BMO Hat tip Land_Lubber via Pedriven at Investor Village More on crude and product inventories: Hard Assets Investor What ever happened to…
Horizontal drilling changing the game: “The global oil market looks very bearish…The exploration and production guys now are saying $4.50 (natural gas) is a good number.” Oil and Gas Journal with a hat tip to Million Dollar Way Full cost and successful efforts accounting in the oil patch. I sure…
After talking down the oil price, so much for the SPR release. Reuters “Production in the Eagle Ford could reach 1 million barrels a day by 2016…” Fuel Fix “A report published by…OPEC…(Iranian) oil production…fell by 12 percent in the first three months of this year and is expected to continue…
Canadian Natural Resources says $85 the make or break price for oil. Globe and Mail Most of last decade high US natural gas prices helped forced industrial activity overseas. Looks like it has been reversed. EIA Reuters on the Bakken and Eagle Ford: (Article claims 1.2 million barrels of production…
“Commodities Oversold: Oil, gold, silver, platinum, and orange juice are the most oversold, while wheat, corn, coffee and copper aren’t far behind.” Bespoke Also, energy and materials have corrected much more than other groups: Bespoke
North Dakata production booming, being representative of the Bakken. Be sure to click on the charts. Mark J Perry Seaway helps bridge record oil gap, but analysts far apart: Much info at Reuters Gas prices by country: Barry Ritholtz Rebirth of natural gas feedstock demand: RBN Energy “A strong…
“Since peak demand in 2007, consumption of the commodity everyone loves to hate is down 14 per cent or about 3.0 million barrels a day in the United States.” The internet sure is changing the world. Peter Tertzakian for the Globe and Mail .
Conference call notes: Thrice they were asked how much was drawn on the revolver as of Friday. Answer 1: Referenced March 31 and and $3 billion less than Friday. Answer 2: Don’t recall, but $3 billion less than Friday (flippantly) Answer…
Natural Gas Vehicles: Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week Missing from the Export Land Model is the new booming US oil production growth. Saudi Arabia and solar power? Peak Oil Economist Mark J. Perry posts on oil: 1) Peak What? 2) Green…
A summery of OPEC’s monthly May report, including: “Non-OPEC global supply is expected to grow by 600,000 barrels/day this year, primarily due to increased production in the US.” Also, “The report also noted that the oil market has moved back into contango, a market state in which futures prices…
Marathon Oil adds to their Eagle Ford assets with an acquisition of 17,000 net acres in the liquids-rich core of the Eagle Ford shale play for $767 million. My math makes it $44,118 an acre, which would need to be adjusted for production…
EOG Resources is the furthest along the learning curve with the largest position in the best play. CEO Mark Papa loves to talk about the Eagle Ford on their conference calls. Too bad EOG’s stock is richly priced: “Our press release again…
Last decade investors were concerned about the industry’s ability to produce oil and gas. Natural gas conventionally produced was on a treadmill running too fast and producers could not keep up, forcing the price ever higher. Natural gas…