Big Energy

The energy piece of the economic puzzle has morphed over the last several years.  From a macro economic perspective, energy does not appear to be a headwind.  Energy is providing a sustainable economic competitive advantage in the U.S.

Perhaps the energy secular bull market has past, and investors instead will have only cyclical conditions with which to contend going forward.  Let 24 diverse links help tell the story:

Saudi oil Minister Al-Naimi:  “everybody now is happy with where the prices are. Nobody is complaining about high prices or low prices.”  (Arab News)  Sounds like relatively stable oil prices near today’s price deck could be the norm…

E&P capex in 2013 is set to be flat in North America, but rise 7% globally in a sustained rise dependent upon today’s oil price.  AOL Energy  Continue reading

Coal Calls

Amongst the East Coast hysteria, the NYSE and NASDAQ closed for today and almost certainly will again on Tuesday.  My experience suggests speculators will become irritable (no action!) while investors get some work and analysis done without being distracted by moving prices.  Let’s look at some coal details from last week: Continue reading

Natural Gas Market Share

“Total domestic coal distribution was an estimated 199.6 million short tons (mmst) in the 2nd Quarter 2012. This value is 24.5 mmst (i.e. 10.9 percent) lower than the 1st Quarter of 2012 and 31.7 mmst (i.e. 13.7 percent) lower than the 2nd Quarter of 2011 estimates.”  ISA expects the third quarter number to be lower.  Most importantly, the large majority is a baseline shift toward natural gas.  EIA  Continue reading