Coal Education

The coal stocks ripped higher this morning.  I don’t think it’s because natural gas is trading at $2.81 instead of $2.77.  The rally is a function of Court strikes down EPA air pollution rule, best explained at Politico.

But coal still has many opponents, as the Montana Land Board shrugs off coal protest’s request at Business Week.

CAPP coal pricing bounced last week, as other coal pricing stayed flat: EIA.  Yet consensus is PBR coal will recover first, followed by the Illinois Basin with Appalachia coal last.

The super-cycle questioning continues, as “China, the world’s largest coal importer by volume, appears unable to keep the coal balance right and that it might not be a long-term structural importer of thermal coal.” (Mining)  Yet, “The trough of the market for thermal coal has been reached, says the chief executive of Xstrata, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal used in power plants.”  (Coal Investing News)  I’m skeptical in the short term but an ‘industrialization of China’ believer long term.

The resumption of Colombian exports has hit Atlantic basin pricing:  Reuters.

Natural Gas Is Pushing Coal Over The Cliff at Testosterone Pit.

The Independent Stock Analysis coal thesis continues to be to wait on coal.  The shoulder season could be ugly.  Ending the natural gas supply glut is further out than understood by the market based on the well backlog, very strong associated gas production and increasing well productivity.  Morning rips higher like today are awkward.  In theory emotional capital is as important investment capital.  Last week’s coal stock weakness did not hurt the psyche of those on the sideline.  Going forward ISA expects to continue our daily coal education in the coal category.

We still have a lot learn.  Exactly which stocks will be the winners, and which will be the losers.  A number of bankruptcy candidates exist among the most actively traded issues.  The rails as a derivative play looks outstanding.  Are you going to join us at Independent Stock Analysis?