Category Archives: Gold

A 460 point decline in the DJIA still gives me sticker shock, for back in the day that was a big move. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. Such ought not be a big deal. When you checked your portfolio…did you get a sick in your stomach…

I have been out of step with the market for several years. The valuations and underlying fundamentals are pretty much outrageous. Perhaps the proverbial bell rang this week. Market internals have been horrible for quite some time, that’s…

Will the Cyprus surprise be akin the Bear Stearns collapse five years ago? Good morning. All markets are down this morning except natural gas and gold. The natty price functions in it’s own insulated world apart from the madness of risk on…

The stock market’s secular and cyclical position discussed in Barron’s and by Josh Brown . S&P 500 Fair Value Update at Value Plays (Has the shift in income to capital from labor permanent? Or is it a function of the credit bubble?). 2008…

Understanding the Oil Cycle at Investing Daily . “RBC Capital Markets’ commodities expert, George Gero, sees WTI trading in a $20-band around the mid-$80s in 2013…” Saudi Gazette “U.S. daily oil production, which averaged 6.4 million…

Welcome to the first full week of stock trading since mid-December. And the S&P 500 stands at a 5 year high. After a poor 2012, “Master Limited Partnerships came roaring back with 7% gains in the first week of the new year, leaving a…

Yesterday the PM complex was whacked on a White House rejection of a Boehner offer. Blah blah, whatever. I didn’t look, but I’m sure the conspiratorial goldbugs were screaming manipulation. But is a “High volume flushout with positive…

S&P 500 Energy & Materials relative to each other by Ed Yardeni . The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production by Frank Holmes . Three charts of America’s bright energy future by Mark Perry . The Insourcing Boom ( The Atlantic ) helps…

Gifts for the Financially Inclined (I received the Zimbabwe bills two years ago.) Perhaps an Independent Stock Analysis membership would be a good self-gift. The Science Behind Gifting ( WSJ ). Lunch with Warren Buffet at the New Yorker…

Bearish commentary is everywhere the investor turns, such as Technician Alan Newman: I’m As Bearish As I’ve Ever Been and Charles Biderman is not feeling your dead cat bounce . John Hussman has a weekly piece which is well reasoned and…

I trust members used the weekend to get caught up on the heavy reading presented at Independent Stock Analysis . In honor of cyber Monday, consider subscribing for $100 a year. Now we’re back at it as we continue to examine our thesis…

The best stuff you’ll see all weekend: The History of Gold Charts : Peter Brandt . An in-depth big picture look by Grant Williams .. Re-post: Print and read sixty two page of goodness from Peter Degraaf . This will not print without a…

The Gold to Crude Oil Ratio is Getting Jiggy and looks to head much higher: Greg Harmon . “Gold is likely to move sharply upwards should Barack Obama be given a second term in office, analysts say…a Romney win would result in a knee-jerk…

Basic Points: Twentieth Anniversary Issue by Don Coxe . This Basic Points will keep investors busy for a while. Coxe reads best after he’s been off your radar for a while. Don Coxe – A Gold Bull, Bond Bear, & Commodity Supercyle at KWN…

The precious metals complex is outperforming today and may be set to rally. Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks? Chris Vermeulen “Continuing problems in the U.S. economy suggest that the Federal Reserve may not be providing…

I was away from the computer screen during the Friday market drubbing, but you can be sure I noted the gold stocks (and UPL) were flat on the day. Perhaps the title of this worthwhile essay should have been “ Buy Gold “: Will central banks…

Tomorrow afternoon ISA will take an extensive look at the coal and natural gas thesis, including a favorite investment possibility. As the the precious metals complex works off an overbought condition with time, here is a deep look: GOLD –…

Following two days of trading lower, the precious metals complex opened sharply down today before rebounding to this point. Chess’s take this morning. “Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Tuesday reiterated his support…

The Economy Is Slowing?? Railroads Apparently Did not Get The Memo at Value Plays . I get it, the U.S. economy is moving along at an okay pace. Regarding the current stimulus, Fed head Lockhart said “If we do not see improvement, more…

How much is $40 billion a month? Try $128.20 per US citizen. With my family of three, perhaps the Fed could have the Treasury send a $385.12 check every month instead. Remember the extension of operation twist ? (How can one not giggle?)…

Question: What is more bullish than continuous money printing? Answer: An ever increasing rate of money printing! Here the history of bringing NGDP to the mainstream blogosphere: Economist . NGDP will be the next step. What is NGDP? WSJ…

Would you kiss a raging bull on the lips? I was considering being active with my trading position in precious metals when some certain price targets were met ( Daily Gold ), which fits well with gold forming a cup ( Jesse ) and possible…

The money quote from the Fed : “purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month… If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of…

Perhaps this title does not mean much to you: George Soros endorses 5% NGDP target ( Money Illusion ). Next consider negative real interest rates as a a sign of the times ( Iacono Research ). NGDP stands for nominal gross domestic product…

China’s targeted infrastructure investment announcement in itself is underwhelming. Building 1254 miles of roads is not going to turn around the base metal and material sector. However, if this is a down payment the story has shifted. ISA…

Today’s stock rally includes strong precious metals with base metals being flat. Jim O’Neal coined the term BRIC and now says “The big commodity play on China is finished.” ( Bloomberg video ). The BRIC nations stock markets are minor…

In 2011 U.S. government unfunded liabilities grew by $11 trillion ( Bloomberg ). Political promises are never retracted; instead the default will be papered over through debasement. Don Coxe on gold in the Gold Report . The title on one of…

One mainstream journalist at a leading publication asks: “ Why has gold lost its shine? This precious metal has fallen in value and analysts are puzzled” at the Guardian . Meanwhile, the gold bug community is downright giddy short term…

Since inception, Independent Stock Analysis has closely monitored the precious metal markets. The bottoming out of the sector and recent breakout calls have been noted. Until China re-accelerates, which is not expected soon, consider the…

Seems the stars are aligned for gold and silver: New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks at Daily Gold . The beginning of a gold rally begin at Frank Talk . Gold and silver off to the races? at Gold Money . Gold Stocks Get Healthy at…

This spring and summer ISA monitored the gold stock double bottom. For the last six we have been noting and waiting for a gold breakout. It happened this week. Gold, Silver ETFs Screaming Buys: Asset Managers at IBD . Gold future traders…

Long-Term Technical Outlook for Gold & Silver at Daily Gold . Gold’s performance in stock bear markets: Zeal . China and India account for half of world wide gold demand: Frank Holmes . So could “ China’s problems be gold’s problems” at…

Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets at Bloomberg . George Soros more than doubled his GLD position to $137.3 million in Q2 ( Zero Hedge ). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has clobbered gold stocks ( chart ). Which Way Will the…

One hundred twenty pages of gold fundamentals and charts: Erste Research . It’ll all be papered over, including Japan’s problems: Sober Look . The government debt maturity outlook has deteriorated significantly over the last two years…

I look for the public pension problems to get papered over later this decade: WSJ . Practically speaking, central bank cooperating means easy policy at a faster pace. WSJ As states and city’s go bankrupt ( Mish ), remember gold is no one’s…

Note this chart of credit adjusted gold from Real Return Investing at Ritholtz . This piece might be the most worthwhile read of the week. UBS warns of possible hyperinflation: Zero Hedge “On Thursday, gold futures recorded a negative…

Richard Russell at King World News . The world has seen $18 trillion in monetary stimulus and certainly more than that in fiscal stimulus since the financial crisis at Testosterone Pit . And it’s never enough, as the economy rolls over via…

I do believe the safe route to profit from the gold exploration cycle is Franco-Nevada. FNV has a deep portfolio of royalty rights and the cash to invest in additional juniors prospects at favorable prices. Junior Gold Exploration at Zeal…

Gold Stock Valuations at Zeal . Note the deflationary period in Weimar marks relating to gold: Casey Research . About this gold consolidation since last August: Kimble Charting Solutions . A forty year silver chart with its recent…

Ridiculousness continues: Multi-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared at The Telegraph . State pensions will be papered over imo: Financial Sense . Fleckenstein – Fed Takes Half Step, Will Be Forced to Act Again at King World…

Endless QE? $6 trillion and counting Reuters Easing Seems Likely, But of What Form? Financial Sense One British central banker say bond buying should be expanded: Bank of England should buy company loans at Reuters . Re-reading Bernanke’s…

All roads in Europe lead to gold: Chris Martenson . Bernanke and the data disappointed the goldbugs at Global Macro Monitor , but Gold reversed higher on Friday at Daily Gold . Have Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks Bottomed? Minyanville…

Last night Australian rates were cut to 3.5% on China concerns, shares rallied as more cuts are expected. The Australian This morning the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 1%. Financial Post Time for the Draghi and Bernanke puts? Humble…

After the gold stock 900 basis point out performance last Friday, what’s another 150 between friends? “Friday was the confirmation of the bear trap.” Peter Brandt David Einhorn Mocks Warren Buffet’s Stance on Gold: Wall St. Cheat Sheet…

Yesterday the gold equities outperformed the S&P 500 by over 900 basis points . The stock market was clobbered and the precious metal complex spiked and then continued to rally. The drivers were the some poor overseas economic reports…