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58 archived posts filed under Investing.
A 460 point decline in the DJIA still gives me sticker shock, for back in the day that was a big move. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. Such ought not be a big deal. When you checked your portfolio…did you get a sick in your stomach…
No one has been more out of step with asset markets this decade than me. As Warren Buffett recently said, “Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects.” ( The Felder Report ). Unfortunately that’s not a good…
I have been out of step with the market for several years. The valuations and underlying fundamentals are pretty much outrageous. Perhaps the proverbial bell rang this week. Market internals have been horrible for quite some time, that’s…
Markets are closed today for President’s Day. The activity this week will be interesting following Friday’s flat stock market and commodity-lower divergence. “…accumulate income-generating assets whose income by itself may generate enough…
The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville by Warren Buffett . That’s it this weekend. I’m busy taking 25 girls to the biggest division III women’s basketball game of the year. But be sure to enjoy Buffett’s essay.
Gold Miners Are Just Doing What Miners Do by Toby Connor . ISA typically avoids the promotional, but the essay makes a super bullish case. Note the precious metal complex was higher in Monday’s down stock market… A look at our place in the…
Filed under Investing, Macro, Precious Metals, Premium
Two top picks: Safety, of course, is the primary concern. An equity investment would need the strongest of balance sheets. Just as important is management’s attitude toward risk. Having prodigious free cash flow is vital. Being able to…
“Are there any signs of a budding recession? None that I can see in the recent data.” Followed by: “With almost $7 trillion sitting in bank savings deposits earning practically nothing, and with tens of trillions invested in risk-free assets around the world, there are therefore many millions of people and investors…
The DJIA is 1.9% below its all-time closing high ( Bespoke ). Weekend Thinking Out Loud by J.C. Parets . Upside Risks by Josh Brown . No doubt currency wars and printing are a driver ( Bloomberg ). “The second installment of the 2012…
My investment education began in my late teen years. I subscribed to the WSJ sent away for the Forbes Stock Market Course . The internet seems to be killing the book, which ought to be central to the investor’s continuing education. Some…
Filed under Investing
What looks good for 2013? Rick Rule’s macro commentary and constructive commodity outlook: Sprott . In spite of the Western world debt mess, ISA has been noting a relatively strong U.S. outlook. The debt ends in pain, though perhaps not…
Shell’s 5% Dividend Yield (Part 3): Total Return Story is Compelling at Ycharts . J&J’s Dividend, Yielding 3.5%: What You Need to Know About Cash and Growth at Ycharts . A Lump of Coal for Christmas May Not Be So Bad by J.C. Parets…
“With that bullish view toward equities, here are our “13 for ’13″”: Richard Bernstein .
In honor of the Fed’s last meeting of it’s 99th year: The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed’s First 100 Years at Ritholtz . I’m sure 2013 will see many a goldbug story detailing the century of currency destruction. A rippin’ gold…
Filed under Investing, Precious Metals, Premium
Gifts for the Financially Inclined (I received the Zimbabwe bills two years ago.) Perhaps an Independent Stock Analysis membership would be a good self-gift. The Science Behind Gifting ( WSJ ). Lunch with Warren Buffet at the New Yorker…
Filed under Gold, Investing, Premium, Silver, Technical Analysis
Top Ten Market Themes for 2013 : Goldman “…stocks don’t always provide the inflation protection investors seek, especially over time periods relevant to most of us; i.e. less than 20 years. When valuations are high and/or falling, and…
Q4 GDP is Tracking Very Weak…. ( Pragmatic Capitalism ). Yet last week U.S. third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.7% growth ( Marketwatch ). Now, manufacturing is struggling to gain traction ( economists view ). And I spent the…
Conspiratorial precious metal bloggers were taken on by Kid Dynamite. Meanwhile, while those guys argue how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, Fed’s Evans Urges Near-Zero Rates Until 6.5% Jobless as “Evans’ shift today underscores…
Filed under Fed, Investing, Precious Metals, Premium
Bearish commentary is everywhere the investor turns, such as Technician Alan Newman: I’m As Bearish As I’ve Ever Been and Charles Biderman is not feeling your dead cat bounce . John Hussman has a weekly piece which is well reasoned and…
Filed under Commodities, Gold, Investing, Macro
Today the investor can waste time watching ‘business news’ being reported from the mall, or you can spend 15 minutes with Independent Stock Analysis: NatGas Inventories Begin Falling Fast, Cold Snap May Send Prices Surging Above $4 Fast at…
Filed under Coal, Investing, Macro, Natural Gas, Premium
The S&P 500 and all ten sectors are now more than two standard deviations below their 50-day moving averages: Bespoke . Two weeks ago Basic Points: Twentieth Anniversary Issue by Don Coxe was posted. Did you print and read it? You should…
Being bearish is easy. The massive imbalances are well known and will end in tears. But reading Zerohedge everyday is hazardous to your wealth. First, An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E is a must read for stock investors and…
Independent Stock Analysis covers an awful lot of ground and two months have passed since we overviewed the landscape. Perhaps an updated survey would be helpful. In addition to specific stock opportunities, let’s consider natural gas…
A constructive look at the election and recovery: Todd Sullivan . Alternatively, the case to get more defensive: Josh Brown . ISA typically has no opinion on recession or market direction. Yet ISA notes because the macro environment…
“Bonds of Exxon Mobil and Johnson & Johnson are trading with yields below those of comparable Treasurys, a sign that investors perceive them as a safer bet. It is a rare phenomenon that some market observers said could be the beginning of a new era for debt markets. It could ultimately mean some companies will borrow…
Filed under China, Coal, Investing, Macro, Precious Metals, Premium
At lunch this week a friend asked “What’s your best idea?” Well, this is not necessarily a direction I want Independent Stock Analysis to travel. But the question was being asked, again. I’m here to help understand our investment world…
Obtaining meaningful income from investment capital is challenging. First, operational risk is large in equity investments ( Ycharts ). Secondly, interest rate risk is huge ( Peter Brandt ). Over extended periods of time, yield on cost is…
I was away from the computer screen during the Friday market drubbing, but you can be sure I noted the gold stocks (and UPL) were flat on the day. Perhaps the title of this worthwhile essay should have been “ Buy Gold “: Will central banks…
Filed under Gold, Investing, Macro, Precious Metals, Premium
Filed under Investing, Premium, Speculation
What the Fed’s Historic Bet Means for You by Mohamed A. El-Erian . Kass: Still Short Bonds at The Street . Bill Gross monthly Investment Outlook. No wonder “…strategists have never been that bearish according to Bank of America Merrill…
Would you kiss a raging bull on the lips? I was considering being active with my trading position in precious metals when some certain price targets were met ( Daily Gold ), which fits well with gold forming a cup ( Jesse ) and possible…
Filed under Gold, Investing, Precious Metals, Premium
Question: Hey J.J. Butler, what’s going on the markets you follow? Answer: Today’s dynamics are especially interesting. Valuations are compressing as the secular bear market marches forward. Vast numbers of people are finding a better life…
Filed under Investing
This spring and summer ISA monitored the gold stock double bottom. For the last six we have been noting and waiting for a gold breakout. It happened this week. Gold, Silver ETFs Screaming Buys: Asset Managers at IBD . Gold future traders…
Filed under Gold, Investing, Precious Metals, Silver
Buying This Dip Historically Makes Sense at All Star Charts while Dennis Gartman Just Dumped All Of His Stocks ( AMP 2012 ). “Australia’s resources minister on Thursday declared the end of the country’s mining boom…” Reuters . Meanwhile…
A Independent Stock Analysis member sent me the following email: Thank you, the website works and is fantastic! Question- I like so much this Aggregating site, I was wondering if others exist on say Oil, Natural Gas, even Commodities?…
Filed under Commodities, Investing
Another sign of an unhealthy market: Dow Transports Lagging Industrials . ECB Said to Await German ESM Ruling Before Settling Plan ( Business Week ), which could create uncertainy. Conversely, a rally anyway would be quite bullish. Weal C…
Filed under Commodities, Investing, Premium
Not mine, of course. I’m not here to tell you what to do. But first, I’d like to give a hearty welcome to the new members who joined yesterday and last night. As China manufacturing falls to 9-month low ( Globe and Mail ) and Europe…
ChessNwine has become the top technical analyst I follow, and he’ll tell you the bulls have the initiative. Maybe stocks are poised for another melt-up rally ( Financial Sense ). Josh Brown posted One Direction 30 minutes prior to the…
I am taking a few days off to relax and recharge. This is post #215 with hardly an afternoon off. While I am up north, perhaps you will notice the value Independent Stock Analysis has been providing you. The content on ISA consists of what…
Filed under Investing
Oil Trades Near Two-Week Low on Manufacturing Slowdown at Bloomberg . OPEC oil output drops as sanctions hit Iran at Globe and Mail . “Majority of Executives See Energy Independence Achievable Within 15 Years” and “Many see another oil…
The coal stock bull case has three catalysts: Valuations Will the depressed natural gas environment ever end? Emerging market demand growth This thestreet.com look at ANR, ACI and BTU notes “Investors are anticipating Alpha Natural to…
Crude Trades Near Seven-Week High on Iran Tensions, Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Fragile, but Comfortable, Oil Market Expected at Oil Price . Chinese crude imports at nine-month low at CGES . What happens to price if and when…
Filed under Bakken, Energy, Investing, Natural Gas, Oil, Technical Analysis
Outstanding coal analysis re-post by Gregor . First half 2012 coal production was down 6.2% vs 2011: EIA The greenies will try to slow coal exports: Business Week . Fundamental to reviving the depressed coal sector is a natural gas price…
Filed under China, Coal, Commodities, Energy, Investing
Richard Russell at King World News . The world has seen $18 trillion in monetary stimulus and certainly more than that in fiscal stimulus since the financial crisis at Testosterone Pit . And it’s never enough, as the economy rolls over via…
Filed under Commodities, Gold, Investing, Precious Metals
“…oil futures posted their biggest quarterly declines since the fourth quarter of 2008…while (of Friday) U.S. crude jumped by more than $7…the fourth-largest daily gains in dollar terms since the contracts were launched.” Globe and Mail
Filed under Eagle Ford, Energy, Investing, Natural Gas, Oil, Technical Analysis
I do believe the safe route to profit from the gold exploration cycle is Franco-Nevada. FNV has a deep portfolio of royalty rights and the cash to invest in additional juniors prospects at favorable prices. Junior Gold Exploration at Zeal…
Filed under Gold, Investing, Macro, Precious Metals, Royalty, Technical Analysis
Oil Trades Little Changed as Storm Threat to U.S. Gulf Crude Supply Fades at Bloomberg . Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Only 252 pages long): EIA This would only be the tip of the iceberg: Oil price fall slowing oilfield activity at Calgary…
Filed under Eagle Ford, Energy, Investing, Macro, Natural Gas, Oil
We arrive at our desks to weak prices, even with Almost 23% Of Gulf Of Mexico’s Oil-And-Gas Output Cut By Storm : IB Times . Natty will remain depressed withdrawal season begins next fall, while oil needs help from the a ‘Saudi Arabia…
Filed under Energy, Investing, Natural Gas, Oil, Technical Analysis
Steel-making met coal has remained strong so far, a commodity I lump into the ‘industrialization of China’ investment bucket. But most U.S. producers are electrical generation thermal coal production heavy. Thermal coal on its own competes…
Filed under Coal, Company Specific, Energy, Income, Investing
Expect the Bakken boys to report stellar Q2 numbers: “April…was the largest year-over-year increase in the state’s history at 73.5%…) via Mark Perry . Also, The Bakken Buck Starts Here – Bakken Crude Pricing – Part II at RBN Energy . Lower…
Filed under Bakken, Coal, Energy, Investing, Macro, Natural Gas, Oil, Technical Analysis
If given the opportunity to export, U.S. E&P’s would destroy LNG pricing in short order. Natural gas reserves in the Economist . Long term chart of market capitalization as a percent of GDP: Ritholtz . Valuations, corrections and bear…
Filed under Investing, Macro, Natural Gas, Smorgasbord
Western investors have been waiting patiently for China to stimulate so their stocks will go up again. Just be sure they follow through. Rather than compete against the Chinese, sell them what they need. Enjoy today’s industrialization of…
Eagle Ford human interest article: Fuel Fix As production ramps higher in a new play, operators get behind before a maintenance level of backlog inventory is found. The Eagle Ford backlog at Eagle Ford Shale . Crude oil and refined product…
Filed under Bakken, China, Eagle Ford, Energy, Investing, Macro, Natural Gas, Oil
Newfield (NFX) CEO Lee Boothby spoke for 40 minutes this morning at the the Citi Global Energy Conference. Q1 2012 oil production was 47% of total production and I estimate using the back of an envelope should be near to mid-fifties by…
Filed under Company Specific, Investing, Natural Gas, Oil
Independent Stock Analysis has a new tab for books , and I hope to post new reviews on Saturdays. All serious investors are avid readers. You, after all, found Independent Stock Analysis while poking around the internet. But don’t forget…
Filed under Books, Investing, Speculation
