Velocity Crack-up

“Are there any signs of a budding recession? None that I can see in the recent data.”  Followed by:  “With almost $7 trillion sitting in bank savings deposits earning practically nothing, and with tens of trillions invested in risk-free assets around the world, there are therefore many millions of people and investors who need a recession to justify their current asset allocation.”  Scott Grannis

Josh Brown then explains the velocity of money thing.  More color.  The beginning of the crack-up boom?

Bakken oil boom in North Dakota might last for 100 years says Mark Perry.  This is dependent, of course, on technology advancing significantly enough to multiply recovery rates.

Thanks to the Eagle Ford, The amazing increase in Texas oil – output has doubled over the last three years and completely reversed a 22-year decline by Mark Perry.

Conversely, from a friend:  “Yesterday Royal Dutch shares fell 2.7% after reporting weaker than expected US and Asian production. The reserves replacement ratio was just 44%, and even its forecast for the next 3 years of 84% hardly inspires confidence that volumes are sustainable. To lift that replacement ratio to 84% the company pledged a net $33bn capital spending next year.”

About those refining margins at Raymond James.

Natural gas prices aren’t going anywhere.  Kyle Cooper

Who hired last month:

Jan-2013 Change in Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (source: ADP)

Chart of the day: US recession probability is down to 0.20% by Mark Perry.

Seven football investing lessons at Above the Market.

Fascinating, though not immediately relevant:  America’s Baby Bust:  “The nation’s falling fertility rate is the root cause of many of our problems. And it’s only getting worse.”  WSJ