Category Archives: Commodities

Thirty one minutes of Rick Rule , from the 12-43 minute marks on Stansberry Radio . Speaking at the World Outlook Financial Conference was Frank Guistra . Loews (L) reported results yesterday, as did subsidiaries CNA Financial (CNA) and…

Conference Presentation: What is Driving Today’s Investors? by Barry Ritholtz . Commodities Prices are Falling. Really. Barron’s (Google the title, the piece has interesting charts). The 15 year CRB and 20 year CRB . “…by 2030, at which…

The stock market’s secular and cyclical position discussed in Barron’s and by Josh Brown . S&P 500 Fair Value Update at Value Plays (Has the shift in income to capital from labor permanent? Or is it a function of the credit bubble?). 2008…

According to Macquarie Private Wealth The resource boom ended in 2011 already . The cliff notes are at Mining and the whole piece is at MPW. Think China… End of An Era: 30 Years of Double-Digit Chinese Growth at Saturna Capital . Yes, the…

Investors are what they read ( AR ). Thus you subscribe to Independent Stock Analysis . Unfortunately, I haven’t found a whole lot for today. But I’m committed to posting only worthwhile stuff. “…suggests a definitive positive turning…

China’s renewed momentum to drive commodities at Financial Express . Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine by Gary Shilling . I’m not so sure. Iron ore surge continues – now up 51% from September lows at Mining . CIBC’s…

A valued Independent Stock Analysis member inquired about the mineral fertilizer group, including Potash (POT) and Mosiac (MOS), as well as the uranium industry and Cameco (CCJ). I do not have significant and unique insights into these…

Bearish commentary is everywhere the investor turns, such as Technician Alan Newman: I’m As Bearish As I’ve Ever Been and Charles Biderman is not feeling your dead cat bounce . John Hussman has a weekly piece which is well reasoned and…

Basic Points: Twentieth Anniversary Issue by Don Coxe . This Basic Points will keep investors busy for a while. Coxe reads best after he’s been off your radar for a while. Don Coxe – A Gold Bull, Bond Bear, & Commodity Supercyle at KWN…

Last Wednesday Teck Resources (TCK) released third quarter results and had its quarterly conference call. The results, webcast and presentation slides are all available here (scroll down a bit). TCK remains ISA’s favorite investment to…

Fed considers upping QE3 size and language at Marketwatch . Sounds like when operation sterilized twist expires at the end this year it will be replaced with an unsterilized increase in QE3 to infinity. ISA suggests the precious metal…

Be sure to watch the dollar ( Kimble chart ) for the price direction in risk assets. The Industrial Conclusion? Chess The Brics have taken an unhappy turn at FT Times (free registration required). IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper…

Don’t look now, but near front month (November) natural gas is trading at $3.29, while December contracts are at $3.58. Coal became depressed on the back of the shale gas boom: Haynesville Play . Coal vs. natural gas: It’s complicated at…

Commodities Unbound! at WSJ . Commodity markets look for hero in China at Marketwatch . If Chinese GDP growth declines to 6.5%, then industrial commodities are to be avoided. Ritholtz As for precious metals, CPI inflation is not important…

Oil Falls to Six-Week Low on China Slowdown, Supply Surge at Bloomberg . Oil Looks Ready To Collapse on the chart by Armo Trader . Oil Looks Ready to Part Ways With Stock Market at WSJ . Iran’s oil minister says crude exports rebounding at…

On one hand the continuous printing is exceedingly bullish, and at the same time the world’s largest market may have permanently topped. Jeff Saut: “…when the stock market generates an overbought condition of this magnitude it suggests…

Today ISA looks extensively at potential timing in the materials space. Material stocks have been some of the biggest movers since China announced minor additional infrastructure investment last week Friday. In fact, the only stocks to…

Charts to confirm and challenge the fundamental biases presented at Independent Stock Analysis : Stateside: House prices have gone positive year over year: Business Insider . Showtime for the Nasdaq: Kimble . Bank stocks: Kimble . Breadth…

A Independent Stock Analysis member sent me the following email: Thank you, the website works and is fantastic! Question- I like so much this Aggregating site, I was wondering if others exist on say Oil, Natural Gas, even Commodities?…

Another sign of an unhealthy market: Dow Transports Lagging Industrials . ECB Said to Await German ESM Ruling Before Settling Plan ( Business Week ), which could create uncertainy. Conversely, a rally anyway would be quite bullish. Weal C…

Looks like Europe will be making headlines again “as meetings between Greece’s prime minister and euro-zone leaders this week loom.” WSJ But our interest is China centric: Are the forecasts for re-acceleration in Chinese growth accurate…

This weekend everyone was excited over the coal stocks. The charts finally turned and started to improve: ACI , CLD and a chart-fest at FINVIZ . Got Coal? When “Less Bad” Starts To Work at Upsidetrader garnered a lot of attention. I was…

Amid the European mess and weak emerging markets, the US has seen The Housing Recovery Strengthen at esoltas . Both Home Prices and Rents Rise at CNBC . Auto manufacturing and sales are a strong tailwind at the Detroit News . The good news…

Coal plant retirements in 2012 look to be 9,000 megawatts against 318,000 megawatts of capacity, a bit less than 3% of the total. More than 1,000 megawatts of the new plant total is coal-fired. John Hanger Meanwhile, “Dale Earnhardt Jr…

India’s power grid failed for the second day in a row, this time for more than half the country ( BBC News ). Is there much doubt about emerging market infrastructure development, as $80-trillion urban boost for mining projected at Mining…

The coal stocks continue to trade like grim death. Most of the names are making fresh lows and I do not own any at the moment. Twice in the past I have been deeply involved with stocks trading below one year of cash flow and some of these…

Teck Resources (TCK) reports tomorrow. I hope they stop thinking about getting into iron ore. Vale is a $17 stock. Iron ore inventories at China’s ports hit a record by Sober Look . Iron ore price spirals to 8-month low; traders draw 2008…

“The number of Chinese online was already huge, and it’s soared over the past year by more than 50 million thanks to an upsurge in mobile Internet access.” CNET “…800 million to 1 billion new consumers around the world will enter the…

The chart is from the Economist . Future electricity generation demand just for air conditioning, and thus for coal, is wildly bullish ( Guardian ). Wind and solar are not going to get the job done. China is always the elephant in the room…

China Economic Growth Slows to 7.6% at Iacono Research . On and on they rant about China’s over investment. “China’s capital stock per capita is still only about a tenth of the United States” at the New York Times . The commodity complex…

Yesterday WTI crude oil was higher by $1.25 on the potential Statoil strike, yet Canadian pipeline crude differentials rose more than $2 at Platts . This morning Crude Drops as Norway Ends Oil Strike, China Cuts Imports ( Bloomberg ). When…

Outstanding coal analysis re-post by Gregor . First half 2012 coal production was down 6.2% vs 2011: EIA The greenies will try to slow coal exports: Business Week . Fundamental to reviving the depressed coal sector is a natural gas price…

First, a commodity snapshot from Bespoke . Clearly, commodities were the big losers in the first half of this year: Iacono Research . As fallout from the natural gas bust, coal stocks were the worst, being down more than an average of 70%…

Here at Independent Stock Analysis I am are all over our stateside freedoms and the pursuit of happiness. The fourth of July! We enjoy the beach and our daughter. I love my house of worship and my girls’ basketball team. The journey of…

Richard Russell at King World News . The world has seen $18 trillion in monetary stimulus and certainly more than that in fiscal stimulus since the financial crisis at Testosterone Pit . And it’s never enough, as the economy rolls over via…

Oil Rebounds in New York on Global Stimulus Speculation , Iran at Bloomberg . The especially weak ISM manufacturing data yesterday was bullish, in a perverse way, because of a pavlovian market participant response to central bank easiness…

The Barron’s Falling Star piece (google the title to read the whole thing) generated excited commentary from mainstream bloggers including Josh Brown and FT Alphaville . We at ISA are goldbugs and regularly note crazy imbalances. Where you…

Independent Stock Analysis considers the industrialization of China a major investment theme. Materials and metals, of course, are how we play it: Dramatic copper demand growth expected from China, India, Brazil at Mineweb . Rising China…

I would like to point out the left side of this chart represents multi-generational lows in real terms: Commodity Prices vs Long Term Average from Bespoke . Impact of Commodity Prices on the Consumer : Bespoke . I am not in the Club of…