Default or Debase

Seems a binary event will occur on Wednesday with the FOMC meeting.  Expectations are for more easing, the degree of which is very unknown.  The rally over the last week shows dovish expectations; the precious metals complex today is quite sanguine.  My thoughts are a small policy change such as a twist extension would severely disappoint market participants.  Quantitative easing, while very possible but not necessarily likely, would juice risk assets.  Complicating matters is Europe’s mess and an election in 4.5 months by which the Fed would like to be out of spotlight.  With the VIX near 18, short term put insurance seems prudent.  Good luck!

Expectations of tomorrow’s Fed meeting from seven investment banks who have an easy bias:  Business Insider.  Does QE to infinity does not sound so silly anymore?  Zero Hedge.

Yet Credit growth in the US should keep the Fed from implementing QE3 from Sober Look.

Hedge funds and ‘looking for a policy-led rebound in the second half.’  Financial Post.  I am certain Obsession With Central Bank Action is Unhealthy, But Typical and will not end well.  Safe Haven.


Independent Stock Analysis has a new tab for books, and I hope to post new reviews on Saturdays.  All serious investors are avid readers.  You, after all, found Independent Stock Analysis while poking around the internet.  But don’t forget the books!

  • Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: With New Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore (Annotated Edition)  This a favorite in of stock traders everywhere, and the new annotated version is pretty cool:  “In 1922, Edwin Lefevre began publishing his fictionalized account of Livermore’s exploits in a series of articles for The Saturday Evening Post, which appeared under the title “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” Now, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Illustrated combines those memorable illustrations with Lefevre’s timeless investment advice to recreate the look, feel, and message that was first published more than eighty years ago.”

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