No one has been more out of step with asset markets this decade than me.
As Warren Buffett recently said, “Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects.” (The Felder Report). Unfortunately that’s not a good environment for this fellow.
Been wrong for long, yet I’m still in the “There is no bull market without central bank intervention or jawboning” camp. (Northman Trader).
Absent recession, oil looks good. (Goehring & Rozencwajg) This decade U.S. oil & gas production boomed yet the sector has underperformed to near generational lows relative to the whole stock market. And the sector may still offer precious little value. We’ll discuss this in the future.
Copper looks better. (Goehring & Rozencwajg). We’ll discuss this in the future.
The move to 5G in wireless is a big deal. (Gavekal).
When the economy rolls over, the stock market is in huge trouble. The credit imbalances today compared to a decade ago are different, and worse than the Great Recession of a decade ago. Thus the positioning of oneself ought to be different.
Already profit margins are under pressure (Blackrock). Long time bear John Hussman eloquently writes like the market peak is definitely in the rear view mirror (Hussman Funds). Watch out below when the margin debt unwinds (Advisor Perspectives) simultaneous to the calm premium ending (Blackrock). The next recession will have to wring out monster excesses (Gundlach).
Getting this right is the opportunity. In today’s world I’m not sure the difference between protecting yourself and seizing the opportunity are a whole lot different. We’ll discuss this much in the future.
It’s been 3 and a half years since my last blog post. I’m back. Posting will be sporadic through April; by May I hope to be rolling on a regular basis.