Natty Coal Stock(s)

A fourteen page natural gas storage chartfest from BMO and Investor Village.  The hottest July ever helped burn excessive inventory:  Haynesville Play.

One natural gas tea leaf, from Investor Village:

Nat Gas Production Data – Production Rolling Over

CHK has an interesting chart in their investor presentation that shows the nat gas production from the 20 highest rate producers based on their Q2 earnings report. These top 20 produces almost 50% of all US production.
As of Q2 their production is up 5.1% Y/Y.
However looking at Q2 vs Q1, their production growth is 0.0%, that is flat.
It is also interesting that their nat gas directed rig count is down 50% from 1/01/10 to Q2 2012


The natural gas producers being capital contrained would boost any rebound (Reuters).  The coal downturn is hitting Caterpiller:  Bloomberg.  The weak coal names will be especially capital constrained.

Coal Plants’ Victory Over EPA Is Muted by Low Gas Prices at BloombergBig Rivers scales back pollution-control spending after court ruling at PlattsDOE study paints favorable picture of US gas in power plants also by Platts.

“U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 642.1 mmst, 5.4 percent lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2011”  EIA

In Australia a big coal deal won’t be happening:  Whitehaven Says Tinkler Won’t Proceed With $5.5 Billion Bid at Bloomberg.  Expansions are in doubt as Yancoal reviews Australian expansions at Mining Weekly.

Peabody would be the go to coal name had they not bought Macarthur Coal last year.  Now has Peabody has half their operations in Australia just as Marius Koppers says “Australia’s carbon and mining taxes have helped to render the nation’s coal industry unworthy of further investment at this time.”  Sydney Morning Herald.  Plus Peabody borrowed $3.1 billion to fund the deal.  Uugh!

I’m thinking my favorate play is going to be Cloud Peak Energy.  I wrote about it at SA.  I don’t own it yet and do not plan on purchasing shares in the near future.  But CLD tops my radar screen.

2 thoughts on “Natty Coal Stock(s)

  1. Our dear, I had no idea that BTU would invest half of their company into a foreign nation; particularly Australia, as the national government and as well the states, have been looking for additional funding schemes for several years…

    Thank you, Mr Butler, for the handy tip…

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