Gas over Oil

Morgan Stanley’s bullish natural gas note last week may well be significantly understated with the assumptions used in my opinion.  The full report:  Morgan Stanley.

Natural gas and coal:  Energy Energized by Ryan Puplava.

Economists are a strange lot.  Where is the analysis?  Here some very excellent facts are presented while important dynamics are ignored.  (Mark Perry)  Lead and lag times, wells completed against wells drilled and associated gas drilling ought to be taken into account too.

The U.S. rig count continues more of the same.  Total rigs barely moved with oil rigs higher and gas rigs lower.  Clearly gas rigs have overshot to the downside.  The strength of the up cycle will be driven by the depth and length.  Most interesting is the 23 rig fall in horizontal gas drilling.  Haynesville Play

Independent Stock Analysis believes oil prices to be rangebound and world production to be on an undulating plateau for years to come:

“…virtually all the demand growth is in Asia.”  Globe and Mail

“More oil supply and weaker demand over the next five years suggests an easing of prices for consumers, the International Energy Agency said Friday.”  Further, “The IEA sees global oil output growing faster thanks to significant production gains in North America, Libya and Iraq. It now forecasts average annual supply growth in the coming years of 1.5 million barrels a day, compared with its previous forecast of 1.3 million barrels a day.”  Nasdaq

Energy stat of the week from Raymond James.

U.S. crude oil production reaches 17-year high in October, net oil imports are lowest in 20 years from Mark Perry:

Oil sands producers fighting for pipeline space at the Financial Post.

As U.S. oil imports fall, logistics will be funky.  Today’s mid-continent oil price discount is a big example.  Awkward headlines about exports will be another.  Financial Post

Crude oil inventory remains high while products are low.  Crude and Refined Product Storage Charts by BMO.