Oil Balance

Oil Rises for First Time in 3 Days on Likely Supply Drop at Bloomberg.

Does the World Need Iran’s Oil? Apparently Not at Business Week.  Meanwhile, US demand continues to be tepid at the EIA.

One indication oil supply is hard pressed to increase:  The 200 day moving average of Brent oil has been between $110-115 for the last year, yet Petrobras (PBR) “is heading for its first annual output drop since 2004 as offshore discoveries fail to counter declines at aging fields.”  Bloomberg

Northwest Territories oil play big as Bakken:  Well, only if old estimates are used.  Infrastructure will be a challenge.  But long term with the likes of IMO, COP, and HSE.to poking around I am a believer.  Calgary Herald

The economic benefits of beginning to use domestic energy?  America’s Energy Seen Adding 3.6 Million Jobs Along With 3% GDP at Bloomberg.

CNQ’s Steve Laut:  “we are very bullish on heavy oil pricing…strong likelihood that Keystone will be approved allowing North American heavy barrels to displace to roughly 2.4 million barrels of heavy oil imports into the Gulf Coast…we believe we’re about to enter an outstanding era for heavy oil and in particular for thermal or in situ heavy oil, an era where for the first time, most if not all the key factors are in our favor…As a reminder, Canadian Natural has 8.5 billion barrels of heavy oil resources to develop…”  Heavy oil already has the strongest returns and improvement seems to hinge on Keystone.  This would be positive for BTE too.  CNQ conference call.

Don’t Be Surprised if U.S. Gas Export Profits Leak Away as significant BTU’s are lost in LNG conversion and transportation at the WSJ.  And the Haynesville rig count dropped another 2 to 24 at Haynesville Play.

Technical Analysis:  Big Action in Big Oil by chessNwine.  Big oil and the refiners have outperformed the horizontal drilling E&P’s.