Cyclical and Secular

In a world of fiat money, perhaps everything is a speculation.  NY Times

Interest rate risk is real (Fortune).  The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control” at DDIREITs: A word of caution (Vanguard Blog).  US 10-Year Yield: Breakout or Fake Out? at Bespoke.

Best US Dividend Stocks for 2013 (Dividend Guy).  Your 2013 Dividend Guide: How to Find Fat Yields That Will Keep Growing (Ycharts).

Forecast 2013: Unsustainability and Transition by John Mauldin.  Strong economic growth makes the transition easier; is China re-accelerating?  Bespoke

Goldman’s Hatzius is optimistic:  Calculated Risk.

11 Reasons Why Ralph Acampora is a Secular Bull at All-Star Charts.  My soapbox:  I too am optimistic.  However, I challenge the use of ‘secular’ and ‘cyclical’.  For example, some pundits see December 1974 as the beginning of the great 80’s and 90’s bull market.  I disagree.  The low in valuation, though not price, occurred in August of ’82.  I view the late 1970’s leg as a cyclical bull inside a secular bear.  And I speculate today the stock market is in the third and final cyclical move of the secular bear.  Anyway…

“Gold may be showing its hand — and the hand could be a real winner for the bulls.”  Peter Brandt  Will silver finally make a new all time high in 2013?  If so, silver could be the best performing asset of the year.  Hmmm.

Gasoline prices may be a 2013 economic tailwind.  (Calculated Risk)

Did you know 29.3% of U.S. residences are owned mortgage free?  Mortgage News

3 thoughts on “Cyclical and Secular

  1. J.J.
    Nice charts from the Dividend Guy. Makes for a good study for some of us with an interest in that area. Could you gives us some insight on the looming fiscal cliff and how you think it will impact the market this time around? It makes me wonder if I should lesson my position for a time.

    • Experience suggests the can will get kicked down the road…I can hardly tell a difference between R’s and D’s.

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