Big Picture

Over the last three weeks blog postings here at Independent Stock Analysis have been coming at a rate of two or more every market day, plus one on Saturday.  I am taking off Mother’s Day weekend for family time and a road race.  Be sure to check back Monday morning.  But first enjoy some big picture stuff:

Charts for perspective:

  1. 100 years of secular markets:  Ritholtz
  2. 140 years of adjusted for inflation:  Ritholtz
  3. Regression:  Ritholtz

Mortgages and 10 year treasury’s hit all-time lows this week.  Doug Kass on the end of the bond bull market at Market Folly.  Bond Vigilante’s are ridiculed at Cullin via Sinn.

Corporate profit margins are extremely high.  Can they be sustained?  Goldbugs know the high margins are a function of the artificial demand of the credit bubble.  The Economist

The headline read:  Gas-directed rig count falls to new 10-year low, but that does not mean natural gas supply is going down.  Today’s rigs drill horizontally and oh so much more efficiently than the vertical rigs from a decade ago.  Moreover, while the gas rig count dropped 8, the oil rig count went up 17.  I’ll give 2:1 odds the associated gas from the 17 rigs is more gas than what would come from the 8 gas rigs dropped.  Moreover, total horizontal rigs are at a new record.  Reuters

Robert says do not get to excited about the natural gas price spike.  Haynesville Play

So the mainstream media hates the industrialization of the third world meme (Business Insider).  From Doomonyou at Investor Village:  “So some place called Indonesia grew at 6.5% Y-o-Y. I understand that this is not a critical part of the world economy like say FRANCE and it has nothing like the economic sway of GREECE!!!! but apparently this country, whatever it is has 240,000,000 people living in it, or about 65% of the EU’s total  population.  I mean if you are convinced its a real country (and I am not so sure the name sounds suspicious).  Then I accidentally bumped into an article about some (again feel free to check my sources, because now the names are just plain silly) place called the Philippines.  Now my wife (whose ethnically Filipino) insists that this is a real place. I guess it could be, but how could its economy grow, with its population of 90 million people, when everything is so awful, bleak and full of darkness?  I mean CNBC was reporting that yesterday Sauron was elected with the One Ring to the Greek parliament and he started massacring hobbits and Darth Vader  is now the president of France.”  A reply:  “I can assure you the Philippines is real; we lived there 6 months. My daughter’s name is Mila Manila. My Filipino friend Alex makes $10 a day and recently bought a used air con (short for air conditioner) unit to cool his 3,000 php (~$65 USD) a month home in the sweltering 38C+ (100 fahrenheit) humid heat. It’s true, he’s seen the movies and knows how much more rich we are than him. As for the great numbers people, they are real and they are everywhere. As people become a little more free they become a whole lot more rich.”