Big Picture

The backdrop thesis is the secular stock market bear market, beginning in 2000, coinciding with the commodity bull market starting near the same time.  The fundamentals and valuations support this broad idea.  Is the price action suggesting otherwise?  The operating assumption has been the 2008 financial crisis was the speed bump along the way, ala 1974 or 1937 for financial historians.  March of 2009 may have been the price low, but a valuation low is to come sometime later this decade, like 1981 and 1942.  Don Coxe pronounced 3 years ago that tech stocks were invest-able again and he was right.  Meanwhile, Chris Puplava is pronouncing the consumer bear market over while the CRB meets the 20% bear threshold.  Technical trader Peter Brandt is bearish too.

Sources:  Chris Puplava at Financial Sense, Bespoke on the CRB and Peter Brandt.