---
title: "Tight Oil Supply"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/tight-oil-supply/
description: "Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain Before Fed Chairman’s Speech at Bloomberg . “Global crude oil supplies have tightened as top petroleum countries such as…"
published: 2012-08-31
updated: 2012-08-31
---

# Tight Oil Supply

Published 2012-08-31

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain Before Fed Chairman’s Speech at [Bloomberg](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-31/oil-heads-for-second-monthly-gain-before-fed-chairman-s-speech.html).

“Global crude oil supplies have tightened as top petroleum countries such as Iran produce less” per the EIA. [Short](http://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/today-in-petroleum-2012-08-29.html) and [long](http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/ed172-today-in-petroleum-2012-08-29.pdf) versions.

“Growing global demand for oil will push prices to $125 a barrel sometime next year and possibly to $180 by the end of the decade, according to a Barclays research report Thursday.” [Fuel Fix](http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/08/30/barclays-predicts-180-oil-by-end-of-the-decade/)

U.S. producers are leaving a lot of money on the table. The Brent-WTI spread at the [WSJ](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443864204577619160494093468.html?mod=rss_world_markets).

“Statoil said the Bakken and Three Forks oil plays in North Dakota would play a key role in plans to boost its North American production from 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to more than 500,000 boepd by 2020.” [UPI](http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/08/30/Statoil-to-deliver-N-Dakota-crude-by-rail/UPI-77991346325012/)

“Iraq produced 3.051mn b/d of crude oil in July, surpassing 3 million b/d for the first time since the months before the 1990 invasion of Kuwait” at [MEES](http://www.mees.com/en/articles/5807-iraq-oil-output-tops-3mn-b-slash-d).

OPEC is on the side of the oil investor. Conversely, Oil’s rise troublesome for Asia at the [Globe and Mail](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/breaking-views/oils-rise-troublesome-for-asia/article4510481/).

Mexico details Gulf oil find at [Fuel Fix](http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/08/29/pemex%e2%80%99s-el-perdido-oil-deposits-may-hold-10-billion-barrels/).

Exxon and Chesapeake Diverge On Shale Gas at [AMP 2012](http://amp2012.com/2012/08/30/exxon-and-chesapeake-diverge-on-shale-gas/). Chevron, Sitting on Cash Pile: an Acquisition Target That Makes Perfect Sense at [Ycharts](http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/oh_goody_what_should_chevron_buy_with_all_this_cash?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+AAPL+XOM+CVX+JNJ+TOT+DIS+FB+SBUX+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST&utm_content=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+AAPL+XOM+CVX+JNJ+TOT+DIS+FB+SBUX+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST+CID_96257df8b36cf92a30d942a6afb235d8&utm_source=email&utm_term=Chevron+Sitting+on+Cash+Pile+an+Acquisition+Target+That+Makes+Perfect+Sense).

From [Daith Wealth](http://www.dailywealth.com/2198/A-Possible-55-Gain-in-19-Months-with-European-Stocks):

> IT’S TIME TO BET AGAINST BIG OIL
>
> The bullish percent index for the energy sector (BPENER) triggered a sell signal aily Wealth on Monday.

> A sell signal occurs when the BPENER rallies into overbought territory – above 80 – and then turns lower. The red circles on the chart indicate the four sell signals that have occurred over the past two years.
>
> In each of the previous three cases, oil stocks sold off sharply. The AMEX Oil Index (XOI) dropped anywhere from 11% to 29% sometime over the next five weeks. It wasn’t always a straight shot lower, of course. Sometimes, the oil sector chopped around for a few days before the selling pressure finally took hold.
>
> In each case, though, shorting the oil stocks following a
>
> BPENER sell signal would have been a profitable trade.