---
title: "Home CRB Bull Market"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/home-crb-bull-market/
description: "“The U.S. economy is downshifting, even as the housing sector is finally showing signs of life.” WSJ Optimism from the Economist . Housing supply is tight…"
published: 2012-07-19
updated: 2012-07-19
---

# Home CRB Bull Market

Published 2012-07-19

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

“The U.S. economy is downshifting, even as the housing sector is finally showing signs of life.” [WSJ](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304217904577534600310152644.html?mod=rss_markets_main) Optimism from the [Economist](http://www.economist.com/node/21558591). Housing supply is tight with with inventory is down 24.4% year over year ([Calculated Risk](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/07/existing-home-sales-inventory-and-nsa.html)). More color: [Marketwatch](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/june-existing-home-prices-rise-again-sales-down-with-constrained-supply-2012-07-19).

Builder confidence has rebounded ([Carp Diem](http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/07/builder-confidence-rises-to-5-year-high.html)) and the stocks have had a party ([Bespoke](http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/7/13/homebuilders-trading-like-its-2005-all-over-again.html)). Thoughts from some fellows at the [New York Fed](http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/07/just-released-housing-checkup-has-the-market-finally-bottomed-out.html#.UAVsae_wLMY.twitter). Shadow inventory improvement from [Economic Musings](http://www.economicmusings.com/post/26986275176/shadow-inventory-trends-projections-show-worst-is). The anecdotal stories never end: [Sacramento](http://www.sacbee.com/2012/07/17/4636893/so-cal-home-prices-match-two-year.html), [Michigan](http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2012/07/homebuilders_report_a_hot_star.html#incart_river_default) and [Chicago](http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/7/prweb9699899.htm) are strong. [San Antonio](http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Home-prices-hit-all-time-high-in-S-A-3700219.php) prices are at new all-time highs.

Housing picking up would help Dr. Copper, which has been hanging around $3.50 a pound ([Mining](http://www.mining.com/2012/07/13/copper-tops-3-50-after-significant-pick-up-in-chinese-investment/)). These prices are not enough to spur supply ([FT](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7e76911e-d1ab-11e1-bbbc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz215y1QjMG)). Yet they’ve made balance sheets strong ([SA](http://seekingalpha.com/article/719381-freeport-mcmoran-s-improved-balance-sheet-sustains-growth-and-dividend?source=email_investing_income&ifp=0)). Copper [chartology](http://www.seeitmarket.com/chartology-copper-trying-to-hold-above-key-support/).

Jeff Saut at [KWN](http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/17_Saut__The_World_Is_In_Its_3rd_Super_Cycle_In_The_Past_200_Years.html): “I expect notional world GDP growth going forward to be somewhere around the 4% level.” If he’s even close, think commodities as represented by the CRB at [Ritholtz](http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/041.png). Commodity Prices Will Continue to Ratchet Up by [Greg Harmon](http://dragonflycap.com/2012/07/18/commodity-prices-will-continue-to-ratchet-up/). Corn at $12.50 is possible by [Peter Brandt](http://peterlbrandt.com/12-50-corn-how-high-is-high/).

A Euro [rebound](http://allstarcharts.com/the-anatomy-of-my-favorite-trade/) is bullish as are these [black candlesticks](http://allstarcharts.com/about-those-black-candlesticks/). The S&P 500 is right at [resistance](http://chart.ly/ak2q3lp).