---
title: "Hello 2013"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/hello-2013/
description: "What looks good for 2013? Rick Rule’s macro commentary and constructive commodity outlook: Sprott . In spite of the Western world debt mess, ISA has been…"
published: 2013-01-02
updated: 2013-01-02
---

# Hello 2013

Published 2013-01-02

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

What looks good for 2013?

Rick Rule’s macro commentary and constructive commodity outlook: [Sprott](http://sprottglobal.com/media/22414/rick_rule_2012_year_end_outlook.mp3).

In spite of the Western world debt mess, *ISA* has been noting a relatively strong U.S. outlook. The debt ends in pain, though perhaps not disaster ([BI](http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-orszag-chart-shows-medicare-costs-slowing-2012-12?0=politics)). Horizontal drilling continues to have remarkable direct and indirect ([plastics](http://www.plasticsnews.com/headlines2.html?id=27261&q=dooley)) economic benefits. We’ve beat the housing drum and autos look good too ([auto news](http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20121224/RETAIL01/312249953/15%20million%20in%2013&%20you%20bet&buffer_share=3f2ec&utm_source=buffer)).

Strength in China ([Bloomberg](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-31/china-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-hsbc-pmi-data-release.html)) would help the world economies too. China’s factory activity hits 19-month high at [Globe and Mail](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/chinas-factory-activity-hits-19-month-high/article6804749/).

Copper might have the most bullish fundamentals of any base metal or bulk material. Note charts of resource stocks [BHP](http://stocktwits.com/message/11206218) and [VALE](http://stocktwits.com/message/11206167).

As the world’s largest coal consumer, by a wide margin, a Chinese growth acceleration would benefit international thermal ([Platts](http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Coal/6940758), [Reuters](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/21/china-coal-prices-idUSL4N09V3FR20121221?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector&rpc=6)) and coking coal prices.

The gold price just completed 12 consecutive positive years in a row. And *ISA* thinks the fundamentals have never been better. The Fed is printing $85 billion a month ($1 trillion a year) and monetizing the Federal budget deficit. Japan has gone *nuclear* on monetary policy.

**So yes, *ISA* likes metals…precious and base…for 2013. Energy is a different story.**

Oil looks to be range bound as intensity declines ([Raymond James](http://www.raymondjames.com/Branches/c2c/7ho/Whittakercooper/resource.asp?page=energy_stat.htm)). Oil could face a downside test in 2013 for a potential opportunistic trade; OPEC and economics will prevent a permanently lower oil price ([CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/30/business/opec-record/index.html)) imo.

Natural gas and US thermal coal appear to have reached a weather adjusted supply/demand equilibrium. Unfortunately the best chance to eliminate the storage overhang…winter…doesn’t have enough left to get the job done. We’ll look to revisit our favorite gasser UPL after mid-year.

Be wary of interest rate sensitive securities. “The (10-year) yield touched a record low 1.379 percent on July 25 at the height of concern that Europe’s leaders were struggling to stem the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. The 10-year yield averaged 1.79 percent this year. The previous low was 1.95 percent in 1941…” ([Bloomberg](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-29/treasury-10-year-yields-head-for-record-low-on-demand-for-haven.html)). “Certificates of Confiscation” at the [NY Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/28/business/reading-pessimism-in-the-bond-market.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1356783248-avQIFUz3aArktM097j381A&). The highest yielding dividend stocks actually declined in 2012 ([Bespoke](http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/12/31/dividend-stocks-struggle-in-2012.html)).

China’s stock market finished 2012 by ripping higher:

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Amazing:

Looking way ahead: Global Trends 2030 by the [NIC](http://www.scribd.com/doc/115962650/Global-Trends-2030-Alternative-Worlds).