---
title: "Energy Mismatch"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/energy-mismatch/
description: "Oil Market Going Through ‘Violent’ Structural Change: IEA at CNBC : “…the shift of oil demand from the West to the East is now rapidly accelerating” and…"
published: 2012-12-13
updated: 2012-12-13
---

# Energy Mismatch

Published 2012-12-13

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

Oil Market Going Through ‘Violent’ Structural Change: IEA at [CNBC](http://www.cnbc.com/id/100303950):

*“…the shift of oil demand from the West to the East is now rapidly accelerating”*and *“refining margins have become more volatile.”*

Iraq, Saudi on OPEC collision course over next oil curb: “OPEC curbs may be needed in 2013 as stocks swell” at [Reuters](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/opec-meeting-idUSL5E8NC30120121212). Dennis Gartman [suggested](http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000134830) suggests oil prices are heading lower. Lower oil prices would not be sustainable because OPEC will defend $100 Brent (imo) and the cost of marginal production higher than understood.

Exxon Sees Continent as Energy Exporter at the [WSJ](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324339204578171583862191830.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet). The article is good but you must google the title to bypass the paywall.

Energy bulls, meanwhile, salivate over too much extrapolation of decline rates:

Peak Oil or Peak Energy? – A Happy Solution by [John Mauldin](http://www.mauldineconomics.com/images/uploads/pdf/mwo121012.pdf).

Coal prices to rise on increased Chinese, U.S. demand -Deutsche: “Short-term price outlook remains weak, but gains seen in 2013” at [Reuters](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/07/energy-coal-prices-idUSL5E8N76W120121207).

“On the whole, China’s net coal imports have increased by 39.5 percent so far this year, to 217 million tons” at [Coal Investing News](http://coalinvestingnews.com/6660-china-growth-coal-producers-supply-demand-rio-tinto-bhp-billiton.html?utm_source=Resource+Investing+News&utm_campaign=42c146429b-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email). The numbers are staggering.

““Coal is going through a retirement cycle” at [Ohio](http://www.ohio.com/business/utica/ohio-s-utica-shale-development-speeding-up-1.356039).

Gas to become dominant baseload fuel for US generation by 2017: Bentek at [Platts](http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/6879941).

Coal-fired generation fell 9% in 2012 and will drop another 12% by
 2017 by [Bentek](http://now.eloqua.com/es.asp?s=911&e=953616&elq=2cf2b79019554caebc0f84cd7bb308dd). Natty takes the market share, while eventually renewables will add up as solar installations climb:

Just don’t invest in green energy:

For Paul: [“The Japanese are in Uzbekistan because they need uranium”](http://www.dailywealth.com/2279/A-Big-Investment-Opportunity-in-the-World-s-Most-Hated-Energy) and [Picturing ag in 2030](http://community.agriculture.com/t5/InsideAg/Picturing-ag-in-2030/ba-p/274425). [Agriculture.com](http://www.agriculture.com/) is another resource.