---
title: "Cyclical and Secular"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/cyclical-and-secular/
description: "In a world of fiat money, perhaps everything is a speculation. NY Times Interest rate risk is real ( Fortune ). The High Yield Market is “Completely Out…"
published: 2013-01-15
updated: 2013-01-15
---

# Cyclical and Secular

Published 2013-01-15

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

In a world of fiat money, perhaps everything is a speculation. [NY Times](http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/stock-investing-isnt-the-only-risk-in-your-life/)

Interest rate risk is real ([Fortune](http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/14/bond-fund-time-bomb/)). The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control” at [DDI](http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/2013/01/the-high-yield-market-is-completely-out.html). REITs: A word of caution ([Vanguard Blog](http://www.vanguardblog.com/2013.01.10/reits-a-word-of-caution.html)). **US 10-Year Yield: Breakout or Fake Out? at [Bespoke](http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/14/us-10-year-yield-breakout-or-fake-out.html).**

Best US Dividend Stocks for 2013 ([Dividend Guy](http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/2013/01/02/best-us-dividend-stocks-for-2013/)). Your 2013 Dividend Guide: How to Find Fat Yields That Will Keep Growing ([Ycharts](http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/your_2013_dividend_guide_how_to_find_fat_yields_that_will_keep_growing?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+AAPL+GOOG+RDSB+CVX+TOT+AMZN+QCOM+INTC+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST&utm_content=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+AAPL+GOOG+RDSB+CVX+TOT+AMZN+QCOM+INTC+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST+CID_654c1ed9f4233bc286dd8eb62a774621&utm_source=email&utm_term=Your%202013%20Dividend%20Guide%20How%20to%20Find%20Fat%20Yields%20That%20Will%20Keep%20Growing)).

Forecast 2013: Unsustainability and Transition by [John Mauldin](http://www.mauldineconomics.com/images/uploads/pdf/TFTF130114.pdf). Strong economic growth makes the transition easier; is China re-accelerating? [Bespoke](http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/14/has-a-new-china-bull-market-begun.html)

Goldman’s Hatzius is optimistic: [Calculated Risk](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/goldmans-hatzius-10-questions-for-2013.html).

11 Reasons Why Ralph Acampora is a Secular Bull at [All-Star Charts](http://allstarcharts.com/11-reasons-why-ralph-acampora-is-a-secular-bull/). My soapbox: I too am optimistic. However, I challenge the use of ‘secular’ and ‘cyclical’. For example, some pundits see December 1974 as the beginning of the great 80’s and 90’s bull market. I disagree. The low in **valuation**, though not *price*, occurred in August of ’82. I view the late 1970’s leg as a cyclical bull inside a secular bear. And I speculate today the stock market is in the third and final cyclical move of the secular bear. Anyway…

“Gold may be showing its hand — and the hand could be a real winner for the bulls.” [Peter Brandt](http://peterlbrandt.com/i-think-i-know-what-the-gold-market-is-doing/) Will silver finally make a new all time high in 2013? If so, silver could be the best performing asset of the year. Hmmm.

Gasoline prices may be a 2013 economic tailwind. ([Calculated Risk](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/gasoline-prices-up-recently-expected-to.html))

Did you know 29.3% of U.S. residences are owned mortgage free? [Mortgage News](http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/01102013_homeowership_mortgages.asp)