---
title: "Cold Assets"
url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/cold-assets/
description: "After a week of “Shale Boom Puts America on Track to Surpass Saudi Arabia in Production by 2020” ( WSJ ), consider a more sober but realistic look at the…"
published: 2012-11-16
updated: 2012-11-16
---

# Cold Assets

Published 2012-11-16

Posted on

by

J.J. Butler

After a week of “Shale Boom Puts America on Track to Surpass Saudi Arabia in Production by 2020” ([WSJ](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324073504578115152144093088.html)), consider a more sober but realistic look at the world oil market standing: [Tadeusz Patzek](http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.co.at/2012/11/peak-what-peak.html).

Six dense pages: “WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012 FACTSHEET: How will global energy markets evolve to 2035?” [World Energy Outlook](http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/factsheets.pdf).

The IEA thinks U.S. tight oil production will reach 4 mb/d by 2020 (PE), which seems to be a pretty good guess depending on **price.**

Many interesting angles: IEA Oil Forecast Unrealistically High; Misses Diminishing Returns at [Financial Sense](http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gail-tverberg/iea-oil-forecast-unrealistically-high-misses-diminishing-returns).

The new boom: Shale gas fueling an American industrial revival at the [Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-new-boom-shale-gas-fueling-an-american-industrial-revival/2012/11/14/73e5bb8e-fcf9-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_print.html).

Regulation & The Environment: Obama win notwithstanding, API thinks energy was an election winner at [Platts](http://blogs.platts.com/2012/11/12/api_election/).

I am not big on geopolitical crude oil risk premiums. [Sober Look](http://soberlook.com/2012/11/crude-oil-risk-premium-returns.html)

*China Energy Outlook: An Inside Look at Chinese Energy Thinking* at the [Oil Drum](http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9608?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+theoildrum+%28The+Oil+Drum%29&utm_content=Google+Reader).

It’s cliche to say, but with natural gas near highs a cold snap could propel it higher. The timing couldn’t be better with the last of the decent producer hedges only weeks away from rolling off. The 6-10 outlook is not bright, but the one month is better. Sounds like the snow pack build up north bodes well for later this winter:

Eurozone falls back into recession at [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20337245). Europe’s Recession by [Ed Yardeni](http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/11/europes-recession.html).

A 28 minute interview with [Rick Rule](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8SS2L6Q7jc), who understands and articulates investing better than anyone. Bar none. Listening to Rick Rule for half an hour would beat a month of CNBC or Nightly Business Report.

Asset prices over the past four years: