--- title: "Category Archives: China" url: https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/ description: "Category Archives: China - 81 archived posts from Independent Stock Analysis, the weblog of J.J. Butler." published: 2013-01-31 updated: 2013-01-31 --- # Category Archives: China Published 2013-01-31 Posted on by J.J. Butler Commodities which ‘hurt when dropped on your foot’ are leveraged to emerging market industrialisation with China remaining the alpha dog. These commodities can be divided into ‘bulk commodities’ and ‘industrial metals’. The chief bulk commodities are iron ore and coal (met and thermal), but many… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) [Heavy Toolbelt](https://independentstockanalysis.com/heavy-toolbelt/) ## [Big Picture](https://independentstockanalysis.com/big-picture-4/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Conference Presentation: What is Driving Today’s Investors? by Barry Ritholtz . Commodities Prices are Falling. Really. Barron’s (Google the title, the piece has interesting charts). The 15 year CRB and 20 year CRB . “…by 2030, at which… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Housing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/housing/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Different Markets](https://independentstockanalysis.com/different-markets/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The stock market’s secular and cyclical position discussed in Barron’s and by Josh Brown . S&P 500 Fair Value Update at Value Plays (Has the shift in income to capital from labor permanent? Or is it a function of the credit bubble?). 2008… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Gold](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/gold/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Economic Velocity](https://independentstockanalysis.com/economic-velocity/) Posted on by J.J. Butler According to Macquarie Private Wealth The resource boom ended in 2011 already . The cliff notes are at Mining and the whole piece is at MPW. Think China… End of An Era: 30 Years of Double-Digit Chinese Growth at Saturna Capital . Yes, the… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Europe is still a mess, even mighty German saw Q4 growth go negative ( Reuters ), but European spreads continue to get better ( Josh Brown ). Meanwhile stateside, 2013 Outlook: Why The SPX Will Be Up For A 5th Year In A Row ( Schaeffers ). The stimulus push continues in Japan ( Reuters ). Chess… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) [Chinese Reading](https://independentstockanalysis.com/chinese-reading/) ## [Coal and Gold Share](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-and-gold-share/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Coal Stocks Grinding Higher at Next Big Trade . KOL, however, represents international coal and is a function of China. China’s Economy: The Coming Year at WSJ . Iron ore continues to shine at Mining . Coal’s share of global energy mix to… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Commodity Express](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commodity-express/) Posted on by J.J. Butler China’s renewed momentum to drive commodities at Financial Express . Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine by Gary Shilling . I’m not so sure. Iron ore surge continues – now up 51% from September lows at Mining . CIBC’s… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Chinese Flavor](https://independentstockanalysis.com/chinese-flavor/) Posted on by J.J. Butler A subscriber asked about TCK. In short, TCK is my favorite vehicle for Western investors and speculators to play the industrialization of the China and emerging markets. Rather than compete against them, sell ’em what they need! Yet ISA… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) > “The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion…“It’s going to be massive and open-ended in size.”” The headline was especially shocking: Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying… ## [$4 Trillion, Massive and Open-Ended](https://independentstockanalysis.com/4-trillion-massive-and-open-ended/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Gold](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/gold/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/), [Silver](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/silver/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) ## [China Letters](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-letters/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Top Ten Market Themes for 2013 : Goldman “…stocks don’t always provide the inflation protection investors seek, especially over time periods relevant to most of us; i.e. less than 20 years. When valuations are high and/or falling, and… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Investing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/investing/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Santa Rally?](https://independentstockanalysis.com/santa-rally/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The possibility of a Santa Claus rally: Cam Hui . “There are a number of possible Utica deals on the horizon, with some values potentially rivaling the approximate $15,000 per acre that Chesapeake previously announced.” Wow! UG Center… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) Posted on by J.J. Butler JC Parets asks Are We Still In A Secular Bear Market? After a slow start, a good read on currency debasement at Mauldin Economics . A ridiculous amount of information from Peter Degraaf . Some Incredible Gold Charts at Kitco . Don’t Fear a Normal Gold Correction by Frank Holmes . Gold stocks over… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Investing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/investing/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) [Extensive Weekend Reading](https://independentstockanalysis.com/extensive-weekend-reading/) ## [Teck Quarter](https://independentstockanalysis.com/teck-quarter/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Last Wednesday Teck Resources (TCK) released third quarter results and had its quarterly conference call. The results, webcast and presentation slides are all available here (scroll down a bit). TCK remains ISA’s favorite investment to… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Coal and China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-and-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Is Coal Ready for Comeback? Coal Investing “…a super-bullish take on the state of coal markets, noting it should pass crude oil as the world’s largest energy source next year as everyone from the U.S. and China to Europe, Japan, and India… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Commodity’s: Money and EM’s](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commoditys-money-and-ems/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Fed considers upping QE3 size and language at Marketwatch . Sounds like when operation sterilized twist expires at the end this year it will be replaced with an unsterilized increase in QE3 to infinity. ISA suggests the precious metal… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/materials/) Posted on by J.J. Butler What to make of the latest round of Chinese data at FT Alphaville . “ September Chinese exports came in +9.9% Y/Y, while imports were +2.4% higher. However, the larger than expected increase in exports was due to shipments being made ahead… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Tons of Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/tons-of-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The coal stocks ripped higher yesterday. Perhaps speculators were betting a Vice-President candidate was going to announce “I love coal”, as did a candidate at the top of a ticket. Natural gas was very strong on an inventory number… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Turkey & Trains](https://independentstockanalysis.com/turkey-trains/) Posted on by J.J. Butler After the poor overnight economic data, markets are quite tame as Canadians enjoy their Thanksgiving Day. The big news of the slow day: “The World Bank cut its economic growth forecasts for the East Asia and Pacific region on Monday and… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [King Coal’s Clothes](https://independentstockanalysis.com/king-coals-clothes/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Having long advocated w aiting on coal , note my latest essay: Coal Stock Bottom Has Passed . Alpha Natural’s restructuring ( Mining Weekly ) was the industry catalyst as I stalk entry into my favorite coal play Cloud Peak Energy. With $4… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/) ## [Materials and China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/materials-and-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Today ISA looks extensively at potential timing in the materials space. Material stocks have been some of the biggest movers since China announced minor additional infrastructure investment last week Friday. In fact, the only stocks to… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Coal Rally?](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-rally/) Posted on by J.J. Butler For the third straight day the coal names have rallied. Interestingly, only those with a position would have noticed. Share owners have had relief and shorts have been squeezed hard. I continue to wait on coal. The rally from deeply… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Metal Mania](https://independentstockanalysis.com/metal-mania/) Posted on by J.J. Butler China’s targeted infrastructure investment announcement in itself is underwhelming. Building 1254 miles of roads is not going to turn around the base metal and material sector. However, if this is a down payment the story has shifted. ISA… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Gold](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/gold/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Busy day in the oil markets: Inventory, G7 and IEA head statements and oh yea, hurricane Isaac. Oil Declines From One-Week High on Isaac Landfall, G-7 Statement at Bloomberg . “The oil and natural gas markets have become less vulnerable to hurricanes as a boom in onshore shale production redraws… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) [Oil Speculation](https://independentstockanalysis.com/oil-speculation/) ## [Thermal over Coke](https://independentstockanalysis.com/thermal-over-coke/) Posted on by J.J. Butler If Moody’s is correct , then natural gas is headed much higher after the shoulder season: Switch From Coal-to-Gas Looks Permanent, Says Moody’s ( CIN ) and Most Coal-to-Gas Switching in U.S. Permanent, Moody’s Says ( Bloomberg ). The price… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Macro China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/macro-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Looks like Europe will be making headlines again “as meetings between Greece’s prime minister and euro-zone leaders this week loom.” WSJ But our interest is China centric: Are the forecasts for re-acceleration in Chinese growth accurate… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Premium](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/premium/) ## [Precious Positioning](https://independentstockanalysis.com/precious-positioning/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Long-Term Technical Outlook for Gold & Silver at Daily Gold . Gold’s performance in stock bear markets: Zeal . China and India account for half of world wide gold demand: Frank Holmes . So could “ China’s problems be gold’s problems” at… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Gold](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/gold/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Silver](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/silver/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) ## [Coal Relationships](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-relationships/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The super-cycle is still soft as BHP warns of job cuts in coal as China cools in Mining Weekly . However, mine curtailments and capex cuts are the fertile ground of bull markets. Peabody Energy says it is continuing to evaluate spending in… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Coal Crux](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-crux/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Coal shares down on lower steel coal price talk at Reuters . ISA readers already know coking coal is not the play right now. “Coal used to make steel is set to drop to the lowest price in two years” at Bloomberg . Walter Energy Shares… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) > “We are, however, waiting to see the response of the governments in Asia regarding any type of stimulus to spur growth.” Nick Carter, NRP President on the metallurgical coal markets right in their earnings release . ## [Commodities and China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commodities-and-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) ## [Big Picture](https://independentstockanalysis.com/big-picture-3/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Amid the European mess and weak emerging markets, the US has seen The Housing Recovery Strengthen at esoltas . Both Home Prices and Rents Rise at CNBC . Auto manufacturing and sales are a strong tailwind at the Detroit News . The good news… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Housing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/housing/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) ## [Coal Thesis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-thesis/) Posted on by J.J. Butler In spite of the current depressed conditions, coal is here to stay (excellent read by Robert Bryce ). The thesis here at Independent Stock Analysis consists of a booming US thermal market when natural gas production finally declines… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Coal Exports](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-exports/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Alpha Natural (ANR) reported results and had their conference call. Let’s just say they’re in trouble. Much of the industry rationalization in this down cycle is going to come at their expense as the strong eat the weak. I’ll have more to… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/) > “China’s benchmark price for power-station coal fell for a 12th week to the lowest level since 2009 as electricity demand slowed and hydropower output increased.” Business Week ## [Coal Shakedown](https://independentstockanalysis.com/more-coal-3/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/) ## [Waiting on NG for Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/waiting-on-ng-for-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Listening to the coal company management teams on their conference calls broach’s the surreal. The observer is left to figure out by himself the industry is depressed. Hope springs eternal with happy talk. Three things have kept natural… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) > “Investors need to think about ‘normalized’ earnings power” Peter Epstein ## [Thermal Map](https://independentstockanalysis.com/thermal-map/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/) ## [International Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/international-oil/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Oil Rises a Second Day as U.S. Inventories Decline, ECB Meets at Bloomberg . Blackout Highlights India’s Diesel Dependence at the WSJ . “NLG Bloodbath…rippling across the oil and gas industry” at Bloomberg . Devon JV’s some Permian… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [Coal Industrialization](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-industrialization/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Coal plant retirements in 2012 look to be 9,000 megawatts against 318,000 megawatts of capacity, a bit less than 3% of the total. More than 1,000 megawatts of the new plant total is coal-fired. John Hanger Meanwhile, “Dale Earnhardt Jr… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/) ## [More Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/more-coal-2/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Continue to watch natural gas. “US Lower 48 production at 72.39 Bcf/d essentially unchanged in May from 72.38 Bcf/d output in April” ( EIA ). The worm will turn, but have much patience. In the hot 2010 summer about 12% of total U.S… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Commodities & Bonds](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commodities-bonds/) Posted on by J.J. Butler India’s power grid failed for the second day in a row, this time for more than half the country ( BBC News ). Is there much doubt about emerging market infrastructure development, as $80-trillion urban boost for mining projected at Mining… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/) > “The number one reason people get out of the game is because they have suffered a portfolio loss that exceeds what they can live with. The number 2 reason people get out of the game is because they can’t stand the volatility (ups and downs) and uncertainty during a crisis.” See It Market ## [Waiting for Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/wait-for-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) ## [Hot Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/hot-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Consol Energy and Suncoke Energy are stronger coal players who reported second quarter results today and have higher stock prices. Leveraged and high cost names like ANR, ACI and JRCC are acting poorly in a strong tape. Ironically the US… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/) ## [Macro Peek](https://independentstockanalysis.com/macro-peek/) Posted on by J.J. Butler “The number of Chinese online was already huge, and it’s soared over the past year by more than 50 million thanks to an upsurge in mobile Internet access.” CNET “…800 million to 1 billion new consumers around the world will enter the… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Fed](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/fed/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) ## [More Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/more-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Cooling related power demand remains strong ( Bentek ). So natural gas is higher on a tough market day, dragging the coal sector to near flat. US utilities may return to coal as natgas prices rise at Mining Weekly . Peabody reports second… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Big Oil & Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/big-oil-gas/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Holy crap! Nexon agrees to $15.1B takeover by Cnooc . Marketwatch The Chinese are coming! The American Shale Conundrum Facing China’s Energy Champions at WSJ (google the title to read the whole article). Oil Plunges to Four-Day Low as… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [Saturday Gold Bugs](https://independentstockanalysis.com/saturday-gold-bugs/) Posted on by J.J. Butler I look for the public pension problems to get papered over later this decade: WSJ . Practically speaking, central bank cooperating means easy policy at a faster pace. WSJ As states and city’s go bankrupt ( Mish ), remember gold is no one’s… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Gold](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/gold/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/), [Silver](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/silver/) ## [Tons of Coal, part III: World Fundamentals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/tons-of-coal-part-iii-world-fundamentals/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The chart is from the Economist . Future electricity generation demand just for air conditioning, and thus for coal, is wildly bullish ( Guardian ). Wind and solar are not going to get the job done. China is always the elephant in the room… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) > “The U.S. economy is downshifting, even as the housing sector is finally showing signs of life.” WSJ Optimism from the Economist . Housing supply is tight with with inventory is down 24.4% year over year ( Calculated Risk ). More color: Marketwatch . ## [Home CRB Bull Market](https://independentstockanalysis.com/home-crb-bull-market/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The commodity supercycle by Frank Holmes . Economic and commodity outlook: Rio Tinto . Most of the commodity complex is depressed, though soybeans, wheat and corn have crushed it. Sober Look “Until the weather changes significantly, we’re going to continue to see the uptick in corn,” Bloomberg… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/) [Commodities & Agriculture](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commodities-agriculture/) ## [Small Smorgasbord](https://independentstockanalysis.com/smal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler China Economic Growth Slows to 7.6% at Iacono Research . On and on they rant about China’s over investment. “China’s capital stock per capita is still only about a tenth of the United States” at the New York Times . The commodity complex… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) ## [Natty’s chokehold on Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/nattys-chokehold-on-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler With a recovery in the coal complex dependent upon some kind of natural gas normalization, note natural gas is in oversupply in two ways: Storage and Supply. First, natural gas in storage is off the charts per the EIA . The low natural gas… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/) ## [Smorgasbord](https://independentstockanalysis.com/smorgasbord-6/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Both energy and industrialization of China related: China to Cut Retail Fuel Prices at WSJ . “Car makers are falling over themselves to get a slice of the action in China, the world’s biggest market.” Telegraph The structural economic… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Fed](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/fed/), [Housing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/housing/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Smorgasbord](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/smorgasbord/) ## [Big Coal and China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/big-coal-and-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Outstanding coal analysis re-post by Gregor . First half 2012 coal production was down 6.2% vs 2011: EIA The greenies will try to slow coal exports: Business Week . Fundamental to reviving the depressed coal sector is a natural gas price… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Investing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/investing/) ## [Thermal Coal Play](https://independentstockanalysis.com/coal-play/) Posted on by J.J. Butler First, a commodity snapshot from Bespoke . Clearly, commodities were the big losers in the first half of this year: Iacono Research . As fallout from the natural gas bust, coal stocks were the worst, being down more than an average of 70%… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/) ## [Easy Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/easy-energy/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Bank of England tacks on $78 billion to their printing program ( Marketwatch ). ECB cuts more rates than expected ( Marketwatch ). But China steals the show with a cuts ( Marketwatch ). One more take: FT Alphaville . Looks like the… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [China Industrialization Meme](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-industrialization-meme/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The Barron’s Falling Star piece (google the title to read the whole thing) generated excited commentary from mainstream bloggers including Josh Brown and FT Alphaville . We at ISA are goldbugs and regularly note crazy imbalances. Where you… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) ## [China and Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-and-coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler China Leads World in Global Light Vehicle Assembly Growth at Polk. After all, The world’s shifting centre of gravity is astounding from the Economist . Thus Jeremy Grantham said in Fortune : “We used to live in a world where the price of… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/) Posted on by J.J. Butler One reason to think the commodity bull is actually still alive inside the secular stock market bear: Commodities trading thrives as equities dive at Marketwatch . Fundamental to the commodity supercycle is the rise of China: witnessing the birth of a superpower at the Guardian as they suck down the… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Commodities](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/commodities/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) [Commodity Supercycle](https://independentstockanalysis.com/commodity-supercycle/) ## [Oil Price, Undulating Plateau](https://independentstockanalysis.com/oil-price-create-undulating-plateau/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Yesterday a report by Leonardo Maugeri created big buzz in the oil and gas community. The Oil and Gas Journal actually used the ridiculous 17 million number in a headline. The executive summery forgets about price . The WSJ and economist… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [Industrialization Meme](https://independentstockanalysis.com/industrialization-meme/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The mining world can be divided into two distinct, but overlapping groups. The small gold mining industry is populated by goldbugs fearful of the credit bubble. The other side is the base metal and bulk commodity complex : Think copper… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Metal inventory and attractive stocks: John Tumazos Yamana Continues to impress : Peter Pham What flat China steel growth means for iron ore : FT Alphaville China Eases the Way : Frank Holmes Meanwhile, Ominous signs from China at the Humble Student of the Markets . Chinese human interest story… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Company Specific](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/company-specific/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) [Weighing China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/weighing-china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Oil Trades Near Eight-Month Low Before OPEC Meeting from Bloomberg Oil production change by country in 2011. Economist A summery of the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report: IEA EIA Lowers Oil Price Estimate, Posts Gulf Hurricane Shut-in Estimates at Rig Zone . It’s still too early to say if this is a… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) [Energy Dozen](https://independentstockanalysis.com/oil-dozen/) ## [Tribute to the China Rate Cut](https://independentstockanalysis.com/tribute-to-the-china-rate-cut/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Western investors have been waiting patiently for China to stimulate so their stocks will go up again. Just be sure they follow through. Rather than compete against the Chinese, sell them what they need. Enjoy today’s industrialization of… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Investing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/investing/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [materials](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/materials/) ## [Energy and a Cut](https://independentstockanalysis.com/energy-and-a-cut/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Eagle Ford human interest article: Fuel Fix As production ramps higher in a new play, operators get behind before a maintenance level of backlog inventory is found. The Eagle Ford backlog at Eagle Ford Shale . Crude oil and refined product… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Investing](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/investing/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [It’s a Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/its-a-gas/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Shale of the Century at the Economist . Price matters, as natural gas displaces coal at the EIA . Capital Destruction in Natural Gas by Testosterone Pit . The IEA put out a natural gas report: Global Natural Gas Demand to Rise Sharply at… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Coal](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/coal/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Multi-decade chart of Chinese growth: Ritholtz China and the impending global slowdown: Econbrowser China’s Economy: Seizure or Cancer? The Diplomat More metals information than you can handle: John Tumazos Canadian iron ore: Visual Capitalist Iron ore pricing going forward, via Fortescue’s CEO at… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) [China and Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-and-metals/) ## [Losing Steam](https://independentstockanalysis.com/losing-steam/) Posted on by J.J. Butler A paraphrased quote from yesterday: “ Investors just want China to ease already, so global stock markets will rally again .” We wake today to futures down over one percent and China slowdown worsens amid signs U.S. losing steam at Reuters… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) ## [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/oil-3/) Posted on by J.J. Butler With the new oil price deck from last decade, the response from demand and supply has been astonishing. The top chart show the anemic US petroleum products consumption. The chart at the bottom show the supply result, and the bottom chart… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-2/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The strength in the materials names today? Stimulus via Business Insider How Strong is China’s Economy? Despite a recent slowdown, the world’s second-biggest economy is more resilient than its critics think. Economist The Global Middle… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) ## [A Reminder:](https://independentstockanalysis.com/a-reminder/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Three ideas stand out in the investment landscape: 1) Peak conventional oil production is still real, with the higher price deck and technological advancements changing the game . 2) The industrialization of China and the emerging markets… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Horizontal drilling changing the game: “The global oil market looks very bearish…The exploration and production guys now are saying $4.50 (natural gas) is a good number.” Oil and Gas Journal with a hat tip to Million Dollar Way Full cost and successful efforts accounting in the oil patch. I sure… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) [Macro Oil and Stimulus](https://independentstockanalysis.com/macro-oil-and-stimulus/) ## [China and Base Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-and-base-metals/) Posted on by J.J. Butler In China 17% of home purchases are done with cash, and “Buyers who use mortgages have a lot of skin in the game: the minimum down payment for owner-occupiers is 30% and 60% for investors.” If you read just one long piece this weekend, make… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) > “Commodities Oversold: Oil, gold, silver, platinum, and orange juice are the most oversold, while wheat, corn, coffee and copper aren’t far behind.” Bespoke Also, energy and materials have corrected much more than other groups: Bespoke ## [Facts and a little Opinion](https://independentstockanalysis.com/facts-and-a-little-opinion/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [China Edition](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china-edition/) Posted on by J.J. Butler The industrialization of China is a major theme at Independent Stock Analysis. Here are some recent data points and commentary. Note the negativity toward this meme by the mainstream press and credit bubble financial blogosphere. Even… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) ## [Monday!](https://independentstockanalysis.com/monday/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Natural Gas Vehicles: Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week Missing from the Export Land Model is the new booming US oil production growth. Saudi Arabia and solar power? Peak Oil Economist Mark J. Perry posts on oil: 1) Peak What? 2) Green… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Company Specific](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/company-specific/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [Big Picture](https://independentstockanalysis.com/big-picture-2/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Over the last three weeks blog postings here at Independent Stock Analysis have been coming at a rate of two or more every market day, plus one on Saturday. I am taking off Mother’s Day weekend for family time and a road race. Be sure to… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Precious Metals](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/precious-metals/) Posted on by J.J. Butler A summery of OPEC’s monthly May report, including: “Non-OPEC global supply is expected to grow by 600,000 barrels/day this year, primarily due to increased production in the US.” Also, “The report also noted that the oil market has moved back into contango, a market state in which futures prices… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/energy-3/) ## [Smorgasbord](https://independentstockanalysis.com/smorgasbord-2/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Marathon Oil adds to their Eagle Ford assets with an acquisition of 17,000 net acres in the liquids-rich core of the Eagle Ford shale play for $767 million. My math makes it $44,118 an acre, which would need to be adjusted for production… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/), [Technical Analysis](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/technical-analysis/) ## [Undulating Plateau](https://independentstockanalysis.com/peak-oil-thoughts/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Last decade investors were concerned about the industry’s ability to produce oil and gas. Natural gas conventionally produced was on a treadmill running too fast and producers could not keep up, forcing the price ever higher. Natural gas… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Eagle Ford](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/eagle-ford/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/), [Natural Gas](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/natural-gas/), [Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/oil/) ## [Supercycle and Oil](https://independentstockanalysis.com/supercycle-and-oil/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Is the commodity supercycle ending? Diapason via Pragmatic Capitalism Answer: How fast will they spend and print? A look at the fiscal cliff with Sober Look . The Bakken players were hurt by differentials in Q1. Williston Basin production… Filed under [Bakken](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/bakken/), [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/), [Energy](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/energy/), [Macro](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/macro/) ## [Industrialization](https://independentstockanalysis.com/industrialization/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Well publicized among energy and material investors is the ravenous appetite the industrializing nations have for base metals and bulk commodities. From some light reading of BHP’s latest conference call, CEO Marius Kloppers: “In that… Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/) Posted on by J.J. Butler Goldman likes copper: Hard Assets Investor Base Metals: John Tumazos Fourteen page analysis of Asia’s growing role in the global economy: KKR Apple in Asia: Peter Pham China commodity and resource wrap: The China Perspective Crushed by natural gas, avoid US thermal coal production: Minyanville Filed under [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/category/china/) [China](https://independentstockanalysis.com/china/)