Investment Income Idea

…at day. Oops. Here is a name to consider: Natural Resource Partners (NRP). NRP operates a favorite business model of mine: Royalties. NRP does not get their hands dirty, they just take a cut off the top line. The asset base is predominately coal, of which we’ve noted the bloodbath. NRP’s business model, met coal production and Illinois assets have softened the blow. And NRP is moving into other businesses. As an MLP, the yield on NRP is 9.60%. The… Continue reading

Natural Resource

…years in aggregates (housing) and oil & gas should look to provide benefit is coming years. The company will continue down this path. A coal rebound, met or thermal, would be a nice kicker. And the company is composed of ‘hard assets’. I do not believe my friend Tom’s concerns about NRP being a MLP relates to his father’s bad experience as this is a different animal. Debt is less than three times free cash flow and NRP is not dependent upon capit… Continue reading

Income Thoughts

NRP). Yesterday the coal names were shellacked on the election results and NRP’s yield moved up to 10.40%. Is it safe? ISA believes so. The depressed coal environment has cashflow and distributions near the edge. Any return of the coal markets would bolster the business. For some time management has moved to bolster the non-coal business and the fruit is to come in the future. Before investing, enjoy NRP’s third quarter results and a recent presen… Continue reading

Coal Introduction con’t

…cheap fuel, top executives of three power utilities said.” Bloomberg Coal investors ought to know a little about Nuclear power generation: EIA Suncoke Energy chart: ChessNwine Coal Introduction: Watch the NG Rig Count written by me, JJ Butler. I was asked what happened to NRP the last two days. I don’t know. Perhaps a downgrade or a forced seller. It could be rotation a safe name to the risky players. If coal is not permanently dead, the big moves… Continue reading

Natty’s headlock on King Coal

…’ll have to wait until tomorrow for more color. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) reported last night. Coal production on their land was basically unchanged, with coal revenue down 12%. That is a testament to their asset strength imo. I also like where their ‘other’ revenue business is going. I just wish cash flow covered the (safe) distribution. Alpha Natural (ANR) will be reporting losses overnight and have happy talk on their conference call tomo… Continue reading

Economic Oil

…growth rate is expected for 2013? The answer is at the bottom of the post. NRP is diversifying into soda ash operations. The insider financing doesn’t thrill me but otherwise I like the business and units. Press release and registration for the conference call presentation are required due diligence for unit holders and prospective buyers. US dry gas production could grow for rest of decade: Raymond James at Platts. Hmmm. Top peak oil quotes from… Continue reading

Thermal over Coke

…l is starting to recover (EIA). Thus the strong coal company’s (CLD, ARLP, NRP) are trading higher. Meanwhile, the leveraged and high cost names ANR and ACI trade like grim death and are real bankruptcy candidates. The other cheapo name, JRCC, is trading better. We are looking for a cyclical upswing in the US thermal coal in which to invest and speculate. Many seem to be hanging their hat on steel-making coking coal. My thoughts on why that is the… Continue reading

Precious Coal

…ina’s growing need for energy at EIA. ISA likes Natural Resource Partners (NRP) as an income producing coal royalty MLP. Street Insider Pick up in Q4 global thermal coal prices likely at Platts. Coincidentally, Look Out Silver, Here Comes Solar Demand at Casey Research. Disclaimer: Casey often misstates facts. “Silver is well on its way to that parabolic top near 50 again.” Greg Harmon Silver Has Experienced A Bullish ‘Golden Cross’ at Business In… Continue reading

Bulls & Bears

…rgy (CLD) to be the sector leader. Income MLP’s Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Alliance Resources (ARLP) are good income names. Remember, ISA remains wary in general of the income meme. We try to avoid getting distracted by ubiquitous scary charts while respecting the action. The fundamentals for precious metals are outstanding and the activity since the election stands out. Franco-Nevada (FNV) is the best long term gold or royalty business b… Continue reading

Commodities and China

…ments in Asia regarding any type of stimulus to spur growth.” Nick Carter, NRP President on the metallurgical coal markets right in their earnings release. “Coal used to make steel is set to drop to the lowest price in two years” Bloomberg First signs of coking coal, iron ore rebound emerge at Mining. If so, Teck Resources (TCK) would be a favorite (chart). China’s Scary Slowdown May Have Limits at Business Week, yet July data has been coming in w… Continue reading

Tons of Coal, part 1: Valuations

…producer and as a MLP sports a tasty dividend. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) has my favorite business model as a royalty play. James River Coal (JRCC) carries the most possible upside, yet ought to be avoided. Without an immediate industry turnaround, bankruptcy is likely. Alpha (ANR) and Arch (ACI) might have the best risk/reward profile for an industry turnaround. Neither would survive a years long long industry depression, but both look to d… Continue reading

Big Specifics

…t’s Petaquilla drama (Globe and Mail). Gold and silver prices seem broken… NRP reported fourth quarter and 2012 results, along with 2013 guidance. Seems to me cash flow shall continue close to the distribution level through the continuing coal cycle trough. However, further down the road the picture is bright. Look out above should coal regain its footing just as more recently developed business ramps up mid-decade. Leverage to Chinese growth: Min… Continue reading

Thermal Coal Play

…, the lowest cost and least beat up industry participants are royalty play NRP and low cost producer ARLP, both of whom sport big yields. BTU is the industry big boy. On the other end of the spectrum are high beta PCX and JRCC, who while they may continue rocketing higher, are bankruptcy candidates longer term. Arch Coal (ACI) stock may be in the best risk and reward option. Arch does not have the dire debt and legacy issues of the spec plays, but… Continue reading

Coal Shakedown

…en this in the cycles before. But it also emphasizes the quality of low-cost assets that have flexibility.” Consol’s CEO and Chairman in their latest conference call. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) reports after the close tonight. The stock is barely off new lows made on Friday. ANR and JRCC report and have their conference calls Wednesday and Thursday…. Continue reading

Coal Crux

…l generation I do not know… Coal earnings season takeaways: Doyle Trading. NRP will be an Independent Stock Analysis favorite conservative and income coal play. But shares look to trade with an overhang as Coal operator Chris Cline seeks to unload big stake in Natural Resource Partners at SNL. “ANR a mixed signals bearish dark cloud signal is not good, could breakout upside” at Stocktwits. Arch Coal is Just the Best of a Bad Group at Dragonfly Cap… Continue reading