“The U.S. economy is downshifting, even as the housing sector is finally showing signs of life.” WSJ Optimism from the Economist. Housing supply is tight with with inventory is down 24.4% year over year (Calculated Risk). More color: Marketwatch.
Builder confidence has rebounded (Carp Diem) and the stocks have had a party (Bespoke). Thoughts from some fellows at the New York Fed. Shadow inventory improvement from Economic Musings. The anecdotal stories never end: Sacramento, Michigan and Chicago are strong. San Antonio prices are at new all-time highs.
Housing picking up would help Dr. Copper, which has been hanging around $3.50 a pound (Mining). These prices are not enough to spur supply (FT). Yet they’ve made balance sheets strong (SA). Copper chartology.
Jeff Saut at KWN: “I expect notional world GDP growth going forward to be somewhere around the 4% level.” If he’s even close, think commodities as represented by the CRB at Ritholtz. Commodity Prices Will Continue to Ratchet Up by Greg Harmon. Corn at $12.50 is possible by Peter Brandt.