Now, manufacturing is struggling to gain traction (economists view).
And I spent the summer of 2010 and the fall of 2011 scared of recessions which did not occur. “In the past, whenever the y/y growth rate of real GDP fell below 2.0%, a recession followed…Yet the economy is still chugging along.” Ed Yardeni
Being Early and Being Wrong on the subject of recessions… by Chris Puplava.
Goldman’s Jan Hatzius says 2013 will be the last year of sub-trend growth after the peak of fiscal drag: “…an update of our financial balances model suggests that growth is likely to improve starting in the second half of 2013. Homebuilding looks set to recover strongly, the corporate sector should start to spend a larger share of its cash flow, and the personal saving rate will probably edge down a little further.” Business Insider
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.5 million annual rate in November, Highest Since 2007 at Calculated Risk. Housing: Inventory down 22% year-over-year in early December by Calculated Risk. A leading indicator, Temp Staffing Hit 5 Year High at Value Plays.
“Uncertainty about Washington’s fiscal cliff debate isn’t chilling demand for cars and trucks, at least not yet, a top Ford Motor Co. executive says.” WSJ
“The key take away is that the rail traffic lends credence to the recent series of data that suggest the world’s second largest economy is stabilized after slowing for the past seven quarters.” Marc to Market
Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees ‘Kaboom’ Ahead at Bloomberg.
Capital Preservation in the Age of Financial Repression by the always excellent James Montier: “It must be evident that we have no enthusiasm for common stocks at these levels…[However] we feel that the defensive investor cannot afford to be without an appreciable proportion of common stocks in his portfolio, even if we regard them as the lesser of two evils – the greater being the risks in an all-bond holding.”
Two Views of China at Dynamic Hedge.
Unrelated but worth passing along: Hedge Fund Wisdom by Market Folly.