Energy Accuracy

This weekend the IEA released its World Energy Outlook 2012, spawning a flurry of news articles.  ISA is a shale believer, but much of the mainstream media know not what they speak:

  • Maybe in a robust price environment:  “The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2017, the West’s energy agency said on Monday as a steep rise in shale oil and gas production pushes the country toward self-sufficiency in energy.”  Reuters
  • Unlikely:  Renewables to rival coal for power generation in 2035: IEA at Financial Post.
  • Not a chanceIs Bakken set to rival Ghawar?  Reuters

Don’t Expect Lower Oil Prices Even as U.S. Output Surges at the WSJ.

“Iraq could spend up to $150 billion on projects to expand its crude production capacity to more than 12 million barrels a day, the country’s oil minister said in remarks published Monday.”(Marketwatch)  With Exxon pulling out, the capital seems unavailable.

My wife marvels as many Republicans continue in their post election stupor.  Oil & gas producers, for example are concerned about losing their tax breaks (‘breaks’ which are simple deductions of costs!).  Don’t Worry Big Oil, President Obama Probably Doesn’t Hate You As Much As You Think at Forbes.  (Ironically, I’ll suggest the shale oil and gas boom was the most important catalyst propelling Obama to re-election.)  Additionally, The 5 Million Green Jobs That Weren’t at Business Week.

Would you believe OPEC is more realistic than many?   OPEC sees coal use increasing in coming decades and acknowledges “Shale oil will contribute to lower demand for OPEC crude” at Reuters.

“There’s a big difference between the U.S. being oil independent and being energy independent” at the Financial Post.

An very good piece:  China Leads the Way as Demand for Coal Surges Worldwide at ReutersCoal demand to soar in short term, but longer outlook dim at Reuters.

This morning stock futures are lower while the precious metals and natural gas are independently positive.

ISA began the week very excited about precious metal prospects:   Gold Cycles: Bulllish Gold Price Outlook by Zen Trader.  But Monday the gold stocks were lower as an important gold trendline still holds.

Print and read from last year:  Inflation and Hyperinflation in the United States by John Mauldin.

One gazillion charts and graphs:  Stock Tiger.  A contrary take on the VIX by Chess.