Positioning

“The average person living in the U.S. has never had it so good, by any number of measures” say Scott Grannis.

How the Stealth Deregulation Boom is Driving this Economy. Cabot Wealth

The problem remains the foundation of sand: Fiscal recklessness including pensions and student loans et all.

“The May Flash Markit PMI reading was terrible as it is consistent with just 1.2% GDP growth…The Markit PMI flash reading implies rising risks of a recession occurring as early as this year.” UPFINA

“The investment implications of a protracted trade war are still playing out” and they aren’t good. Scott Minerd

Many are the reasons Why a 60-65% Market Loss Would Be Run-Of-The-Mill.

“”Instead, they decided to spend a fortune buying back stock at much higher prices than where it’s currently trading,” the “Mad Money” host said. “In retrospect, they might as well have set that money on fire.” Bed Bath & Beyond embarked on an aggressive buyback program in recent years, but the stock is down nearly 80% from February 2015.” Indeed, Bed Bath & Beyond spent twice it’s current market cap on buybacks. Look for many more of those stories in the years ahead.

“Bond performance since 1981 is anything but normal. Bonds provided zero inflation-adjusted returns from 1926 to 1981. The performance streak since 1981 has created two unrealistic expectations…” Bonds are no place to hide, via Movement Capital. Further, U.S. Recession Would Spur ‘Massive’ Corporate Bond Losses at Bloomberg.

“Hedging is typically expensive and shouldn’t be treated as a free lunch to capture stock market upside with less downside.” Movement Capital

Policy response outcomes from Ray Dalio.

“In my view, global risk is now at an extreme which clearly means that wealth protection should also be extreme.” says Egon von Greyerz. “The 2007-9 crisis was only a rehearsal for what we are to see next” from MOVES IN GOLD & SILVER WILL BE 1970s ON STILTS

Copper Well Positioned to Lead the Next Resource Cycle

The offshore drilling company’s are in depression, and most of the industry looks to go bankrupt. Bassoe Offshore. I’ve become interested in the industry. I think I’ve chosen my horse. But it’s still too early. Stay tuned.

“In just 20 years, the number of people going through their “S-Curve” period of intense commodity demand growth has jumped from 700 million to over four billion. Never in history have so many people all gone through their “S-Curve Tipping Point” simultaneously. The result is that global demand for raw materials such as oil, natural gas, copper, and proteins will continue to surprise to the upside”. Goehring & Rozencwajg

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This holiday weekend I read, among other things, The Greatest Trade Ever by the WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman chronicalling John Paulson’s coup.

How does 1/3rd PM exposure, 1/3 the favorite stocks, 1/3 cash sound? Our next post will be around the July 4 holiday. The ISA portfolio begins 1-1-2020.