Easy Recession

The decreasing impact of QE’s:  Ritholtz  Yet Bernanke paved the way for QE3 on August 1st according to Calculated Risk, but here are some different views at Calculated Risk.

Maybe oil is the early warning signal:  Zerohedge.  “…U.S. recession that, by our estimates, has already begun.” from John Hussman

Meanwhile, respected mainstream economist Paul Krugman screams for more intervention:  New York Times

Further, you’ve heard of the fiscal cliff, here is the monetary ledge:  Yardeni

How about across the pond, what’s the ECB thinking?  Economist  There are rumors of $2.5 trillion fire hose:  Business Insider

Dummies guide to what went wrong in Europe:  Investor Village

Quality analysis of Barrick (ABX) at Seeking Alpha.

China Meme, Good and Bad

Independent Stock Analysis considers the industrialization of China a major investment theme.  Materials and metals, of course, are how we play it:  Dramatic copper demand growth expected from China, India, Brazil at Mineweb.

Rising China is a Misnomer…and Other Actionable Takeaways from Frank Holmes.

Chinese investing stateside:  Fortune.  Understanding China’s one child policy:  Economist.

Investors must always be vigilant against their biases.  China’s economic fortune sure has been taking a beating in the financial media.  Thus we consider the bear case:

Dr. Copper says watch out below at Sober Look.  And more at Kimble Charting Solutions.  A technical look at FCX:  ChessNwine.

We know from observing the industrialization of that nations iron ore is the first material to peak in usage intensity.  Iron ore has been a whipping boy lately, being priced at 6 month lows.  Yet, Iron ore hits 5-week high as China continues to forge steel near record pace at Mining.  You can be sure they know this too, but Rio Tinto takes next steps in its iron ore development plans at Rio Tinto.

Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown, Executives Say from the New York Times.

The Macroeconomics of Chinese Kleptocracy at Bronte Capital and a follow up.

Vale and Goldcorp by John Tumazos.

Industrialization Meme

The mining world can be divided into two distinct, but overlapping groups.  The small gold mining industry is populated by goldbugs fearful of the credit bubble.  The other side is the base metal and bulk commodity complex :  Think copper, zinc, moly, and iron ore and met coal for steel making.  The precious metal complex responds to currency debasement.  China dominates the industrialization of emerging markets theme.  Our theory is to sell ’em what they need, rather than compete against them.

Great are the number of pundits who do not understand the the China story, most of whom do not have personal friends in a poor yet developing country.  “Although one economist estimated that 64-million apartments are empty…”  How does something so ridiculous get published?  Huffington Post.

“Speed Up or Slow Down–Don’t Exit the Commodities Highway” by Frank Holmes.

A Charlie Rose interview regarding China’s economy (it’s way better than your favorite sitcom and will take less time):  Global Macro Monitor.

Rustbelt Revival:  “A decade after an explosion of unrest in China’s north-east, a remarkable recovery is under way” from the Economist.

Expectations are China’s growth rate will bottom in Q2 2012.  China Daily

For the first time, Asia now has the most high net worth individuals in the world, something I would not expect to change in my lifetime:  Globe and Mail.  China fast becoming People’s Republic of Gucci at Globe and Mail.


Mine building delays and cost overruns plaque the industry, though Yamana has consistently got it done.  Yamana bids $400-million for Extorre; plans 18% dividend boost at Globe and Mail.

FNV holds the Taca Taca royalty.  Perhaps TCK is interested.  Lumina Copper mulls options in strategic reviewMineweb.

As copper price falls, high-cost projects lose their lustre at Financial Post.

Juniors staggering mine development:  Financial Post.

Twitter and Stocktwits are the antithesis of my personality and how I invest.  Yet in an effort to grow my blog, I joined them today.  If you tweet or twit, follow me!

Weighing China

Metal inventory and attractive stocks:  John Tumazos

Yamana Continues to impressPeter Pham

What flat China steel growth means for iron oreFT Alphaville

China Eases the WayFrank Holmes  Meanwhile, Ominous signs from China at the Humble Student of the Markets.

Chinese human interest story:  University entrance exams, Testing TimesEconomist

Shanghai index:  Kimble Charting Solutions

Tribute to the China Rate Cut

Western investors have been waiting patiently for China to stimulate so their stocks will go up again.  Just be sure they follow through.  Rather than compete against the Chinese, sell them what they need.  Enjoy today’s industrialization of China meme.

“The greatest wave of voluntary migration in human history…”  Economist

My favorite play continues to be Teck Resources via Minyanville.  Steel industry readies for project surge from China Daily.  Always remember, mining is a tough business at the Financial Post.

A generalist becomes interested in the resource sector:  Reformed Broker.  My advise?  Stay with the big cap names or use Rick Rule.  The disconnect means valuations are tasty.  Globe and Mail

China spends $US21.4bn on foreign assets in first quarter:  The Australian

“Will the ECB and Fed Follow Where China Leads?” was written before China cut.  “We believe the next government policy cycle might be just around the corner.”  Frank Holmes