Gold Crux: Irresponsible?

The Economy Is Slowing?? Railroads Apparently Did not Get The Memo at Value Plays.  I get it, the U.S. economy is moving along at an okay pace.  Regarding the current stimulus, Fed head Lockhart said “If we do not see improvement, more action may be taken.” (Bloomberg).  The Fed’s Evan is not as bold but on the same page (WSJ).

The massive open ended QE announced last week will be increased if the economy does not pick up steam as judged by the labor market.  Look for the first increase to occur near year end 2012 when operation twist runs out.  Parsing fed language will be fun and games until the next U.S. economic slowdown, at which time the printing may become shocking. Continue reading

Fun with Fed Numbers

How much is $40 billion a month?  Try $128.20 per US citizen.  With my family of three, perhaps the Fed could have the Treasury send a $385.12 check every month instead.

Remember the extension of operation twist?  (How can one not giggle?)  Current printing amounts to $85 billion a month; perhaps a $1309.41 printing check could be sent to a family of five. Continue reading

Unofficially, Today Printing Became Continuously Permanent

The money quote from the Fed:

“purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month…If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”

Can it be said with a straight face the Fed asset purchases will ever stop?  Expect them to pick up speed next year!  Economic law:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” ~Ludwig von Mises

Continue reading

Golden Radar

Perhaps this title does not mean much to you:  George Soros endorses 5% NGDP target (Money Illusion).  Next consider negative real interest rates as a a sign of the times (Iacono Research).  NGDP stands for nominal gross domestic product.  Soros is advocating a higher level of negative interest rates to ease ‘excessive indebtedness.’  While a bond holders nightmare, this environment will be a precious metal panacea.  The thought process is still a monetary frontier, but so was quantitative easing in 2008.  In short, it’s coming. Continue reading

PM’s to the Front of the Line

Since inception, Independent Stock Analysis has closely monitored the precious metal markets.  The bottoming out of the sector and recent breakout calls have been noted.  Until China re-accelerates, which is not expected soon, consider the idea gold and especially silver will lead the commodity complex.  Feel like you missed the move?  It’s very early following a long consolidation according Continue reading

Precious Positioning

Long-Term Technical Outlook for Gold & Silver at Daily Gold.

Gold’s performance in stock bear markets:  Zeal.

China and India account for half of world wide gold demand:  Frank Holmes.  So could “China’s problems be gold’s problems” at The Atlantic?

Re-monetization of gold speculation:  Does China Plan a Gold-backed Renminbi? at Gold Silver Worlds.

Franco-Nevada’s $1 billion precious metal stream financing with Inment leaves me underwhelmed.  I know it’s a good deal.  However, when it’s looked at as FNV blowing out their entire cash hoard or as consuming all the company’s free cash flow for the next three years, my favorite precious metal play may be dead money relative to the sector over this time.  FNV management acknowledged this deal does not the have the optionality upside typical for them.  Perhaps operating mining company stocks may receive some valuation catch up.  Maybe the play is to trade in FNV for Silver Wheaton and wait for their share prices to converge…

…Silver breakout looks at Nifty Chart Patterns.  SLV breaking out:  Kimble Charting Solutions.  Gold finds itself near the end of a flag:  Kimble Charting Solutions.

Enjoy this Rick Rule interview over your lunch:  King World News.

Gold Bug Royalty

Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets at Bloomberg.  George Soros more than doubled his GLD position to $137.3 million in Q2 (Zero Hedge).  Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has clobbered gold stocks (chart).

Which Way Will the Pendulum Swing for Gold?  Frank Holmes  Gold seasonals and outlook considered:  World of Wall StreetThe Ultimate Guide to Investing in Silver Coins and Bullion at Commodity HQ.

When Silver Wheaton announced the large Hudbay royalty stream purchase last week, their CEO noted “exploration upside potential” as a must for new streams.  That is a change in attitude, because in years past the idea was not even on SLW’s radar screen.  They took the page from Franco-Nevada’s playbook.  Royal Gold has not seen the memo.

I don’t do juniors, but this is why some gamble:  Vancouver gold junior surges 49% after Colombia find at Mining.

Yes, the Action in Silver is Constructive by All Star Charts.

Gold charts considered four ways at Dragonfly Capital.  We’ve been waiting on the longest impending breakout ever.

Saturday Gold Bugs

One hundred twenty pages of gold fundamentals and charts:  Erste Research.

It’ll all be papered over, including Japan’s problems:  Sober Look.  The government debt maturity outlook has deteriorated significantly over the last two years:  Acting Man.  The Fed’s zero interest rate policy is theft from savers:  Sober Look.

Did the multi-decade bond bull market just end?  All Star Charts

Mexico hit a new record in gold production in 2011 (Mining).

Key descending triangle in gold at Kimble Charting Solutions.  Weekly Gold:HUI at StocktwitsGOLD close to confirming breakout to all-time highs at Market Trend Forecast.  But, can a breakout of these coils be trusted?  Peter Brandt

Gold Bug Stories

Fed head wants to print in an “open ended program”.  Got gold?  Ritholtz

Precious Metals Short-Term Outlook is Bullish with “a potential double bottom.”  Daily Gold  AngloGold Ashanti wants to buy more small miners at Mining.

Gold has always been universal money in a neat story from Bloomberg.  And governments have always hated the restrictions gold places upon them in another cool story:  Iacono Research.

Meanwhile Morgan Stanley slashed its gold price forecast at the WSJ.  “A sputtering start to this year’s monsoon rains has forced farmers in India to put their gold-buying plans on hold.”  WSJ

One monster chart-fest at Investor VillageGold Poised for Upside Breakout of Current Range at Hinde Capital.

Saturday Gold Bugs

“In 2011 gold-mine production came in at an all-time record high.  And in 2012 experts anticipate production to be even higher, edging above the previous year’s 87m-ounce tally.”  Zeal

Yet another large gold company board acted aggressively as Kinross replaces Tye Burt as chief executive at Globe and MailWhy Do We Need Gold Stocks?  All Star ChartsTanzania tells mining companies to pay 30 pct corporate tax at Reuters.  Perhaps this has something to do with Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Royal Gold (RGLD) outperforming.

Gold and grain:  WSJ.  Peter Schiff’s Gold Letter.

This is what they tell the average financial advisor salesman:  Advisor Perspectives.

Moreover, the investor can do worse than non-gold Commodity Plays For the End of Fiat Currency (Commodity HQ).

“Platinum charts are “on the edge of the cliff” for a $130 per oz. drop and possibly a $250 drubbing” from Peter BrandtPlatinum is on the Edge by Dragonfly Capital.

Fed Day Gold Bugs

“Here’s a nice round-up of opinions from the analyst community on whether or not there will be QE3 this week.”  Consensus: No QE3 This Week at Pragmatic Capitalism.

Arguments for holding gold:  Campbell Harvey.

Another:  “I don’t see a huge social cost to having a three or four percent rather than a two percent inflation rate.”  Fool.  Marginal Revolution.

“For all the hype over recent tech initial public offerings, did you know that investors have lost more money in Groupon and Facebook than the entire assets in all of the gold funds?”  Frank Holmes

How rare are 1 million+ ounce gold deposits at Visual Capitalist.

Will a Bear Market in Stocks Hurt Gold Stocks?  Daily Gold

Decision time for gold continues to linger:  All Star Charts.

Silver resistance levels at Nifty Charts.  Sprott is buying 7 million ounces:  Mining.