An Old Friend

…he booming energy market in the middle of last decade. Today we look at an old friend. *No, they are not all winners. In fact, the losers are more common. Fortunately, the best stocks can be multi-baggers. ISA first looked at Ultra Petroleum (UPL) in June 2012. Despite the company’s name, Ultra is unabashedly a natural gas play. The crown jewel is the low cost Rocky Mountain Pinedale asset. Ultra’s Marcellus is less developed, yet just as large a… Continue reading

Careful and Patient

…f corrections in this cyclical bull. Be careful and be patient. Excellent perspective in Gold From The Top Down by J.C. Parets. The precious metal complex was higher yesterday… A look at SU and old friend CNQ at Business Week. As Chesapeake has an earnings call, there’s definitely something — and somebody — missing at Platts. Felt like a spoof…only true…. Continue reading

Big Oil & Gas

…e be worried about higher natural gas prices? Fuel Fix Natural Gas Prices: Pain in Context at Haynesville Play. In light of the Haynesville rig count, perhaps “Haynesville and Anadarko Drive Production Decline“ becomes the norm. If so, you’ll want to see this mornings ISA post on an old friend. Are you tired wading through the sludge on the internet for the valuable nuggets? Consider an Independent Stock Analysis membership. For only $100 a year m… Continue reading

Bulls & Bears

…since the election stands out. Franco-Nevada (FNV) is the best long term gold or royalty business bar none. The fine and conservative management has set the company for growth into next decade. Vital in my opinion is the exploration upside (culture and history) completely financed by others. Silver Wheaton (SLW) is my favorite for this particular leg of the bull run based on valuation (a tax issue depressing shares) and an expectation for silver… Continue reading

Outside Markets

…lower, perhaps to 1330 SPX” at Ritholtz. S&P 500 bulls best hope support holds right now!!! by Chris Kimble: But wait! We Could See A Euro Bounce Soon at All Star Charts. “Nearly 90% of markets around the world are outperforming the US this quarter.” Bespoke While keeping cool on this market pullback, Chess likes India, the trannies and industrial Caterpillar. “China’s Momentum Is Helping Brazil, Russia and India Pull Away From Their Emerging-Mar… Continue reading

Portfolio Update

…r for gold newbies. Read the whole thing. Alasdair Macleod Rick Rule: “So gold and gold stocks will move first.” Got Gold? asks Jesse Felder. When The Atlantic writes We Need to Start Tossing Money Out of Helicopters: It’s the best option in such extreme circumstances” one must ask how is gold not a cornerstone. Silver is interesting. Poor mans gold. Why mess with the gold stocks or silver? Just stick with gold? Silver’s industrial component is wh… Continue reading

Optimistic Gas

…Grumpy Economist. “(T)o achieve superior investment results, you have to hold non-consensus views regarding value, and they have to be right. That’s not easy.” Thus CalPERS is considering going passive. Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes. Financial Sense In light of the rig count collapse last year and the expected and observed effect on production, a friend is quite bullish. The Bakken is the truest oil play of the the shales, bar none, yet is s… Continue reading

Weekend Smorgasbord

Jeff Saut gave a great interview: King World News. A Letter To A Friend at Short Side of Long. The U.S. Federal government budget deficit problem clearly explained on YouTube. If only the author took the analysis one step further to precious metals. Think papered over. “To be sure, many miners have more to prove technically, as does this GDX chart in terms of carving out a major higher low…though I would be remiss if I did not point out that an i… Continue reading

Naming Names

At lunch this week a friend asked “What’s your best idea?” Well, this is not necessarily a direction I want Independent Stock Analysis to travel. But the question was being asked, again. I’m here to help understand our investment world. Those penny stock advertisements you see elsewhere are the antithesis of ISA. One member told me his trading activity has been reduced by 3/4’s since subscribing. Good! Next, my expectation would be members alread… Continue reading

Equity Schadenfreude

…John Hussman. The Arithmetic of Equities at Whitebox Advisor. As for natural gas, well, the temperature forecast remain too toasty: From a friend: The monetary base stagnating sideways since mid-2011 is reminiscent of gold. I expect the base and gold to follow through when the Fed stops twisting and expands purchases… Random interesting charts: That’s it for today. I’m sure many of us are busy with life as Christmas approaches…. Continue reading

Big Picture

…Sinn. Corporate profit margins are extremely high. Can they be sustained? Goldbugs know the high margins are a function of the artificial demand of the credit bubble. The Economist The headline read: Gas-directed rig count falls to new 10-year low, but that does not mean natural gas supply is going down. Today’s rigs drill horizontally and oh so much more efficiently than the vertical rigs from a decade ago. Moreover, while the gas rig count dropp… Continue reading

The Exception

…own world. “The Oil to Natural Gas ratio is still crashing.” J.C. Parets A friend with a dormant blog does a lot of information gathering, sharing and analyzing. He remains wickedly bullish. “Until the storage deficit is reduced more significantly, prices are likely to remain supported.” Kyle Cooper Bullish signs for natural gas at the Financial Post. Buy natural gas, Jeremy Grantham says at the Globe and Mail. “Cheap natural gas is crowding out c… Continue reading

Natural Resource

…ich have been made over the past number of years in aggregates (housing) and oil & gas should look to provide benefit is coming years. The company will continue down this path. A coal rebound, met or thermal, would be a nice kicker. And the company is composed of ‘hard assets’. I do not believe my friend Tom’s concerns about NRP being a MLP relates to his father’s bad experience as this is a different animal. Debt is less than three times free cas… Continue reading

Shooting

…quities in Stage 2 of a Bull Market at Market Folly. From a really bullish friend: “Three Green Shoots The CEOs have become more optimistic about business conditions in the future. http://www.businessinsider.com/business-roundtable-index-rises-2013-3 Joe LaVorgna, a bullish economist, is looking for a 3.0% GDP in the 1st Q 2013 based upon stronger exports, stronger retail spending, and stronger inventory restocking. http://www.businessinsider.com/… Continue reading

Velocity Crack-up

…nd completely reversed a 22-year decline by Mark Perry. Conversely, from a friend: “Yesterday Royal Dutch shares fell 2.7% after reporting weaker than expected US and Asian production. The reserves replacement ratio was just 44%, and even its forecast for the next 3 years of 84% hardly inspires confidence that volumes are sustainable. To lift that replacement ratio to 84% the company pledged a net $33bn capital spending next year.” About those ref… Continue reading

Columbus Markets

…. Gold bumping against the 50 day (Bespoke). SLW’s cup & handle. Yes, the Gold Miners Still Exist (All-Star Charts). Real Gold Prices Still Far From All-time Highs (All-Star Charts). Does $100 silver sound outrageous? A tempered and measured look: Gold Silver Worlds. David Morgan: The Silver Supply Squeeze In 1980 Could Look Like A Warm-up also at GSW. Chart of the Week: Gold and an Ever-Growing Balance Sheet by Frank Holmes. Student loan debt, of… Continue reading

Housekeeping

…ng higher by almost 3% today. Next week I’ll remind readers about ‘Turkey’ old Partridge. The base metal and material stocks were bigger movers, coming off depressed levels on China’s targeted fiscal investment plans. This week I had a number of essays published on Yahoo Finance via Seeking Alpha: Arch Coal: Walking Dead received violent and offensive emotional responses in the comments, the worst of which Seeking Alpha deleted. Waiting On Coal: D… Continue reading

Silver: Insensative Maniac Stepchild

…icer would be difficult. Yet the common man can sooner afford silver than gold. In a precious metal bull market, gold tends to outperform silver until near the end. With the precious metal bull market twelve years old, any maniac end is nearer than the beginning. Yet did you know Silver best-performing commodity in a decade at Banking Times. Silver Bull Seasonals 2 at Zeal. And yet silver still has catching up to do to gold. Silver Price Forecast:… Continue reading